Gas Prices

[eatingupblacktop]

In recognition of record profits in the history of the U.S., I give you:

[Alexander the o.k.]

Pump prices here have thankfully dropped to:

I'll post what they have been recently, a little later.

[eatingupblacktop]

[JENunnez]

I've started to see today a few stations with 3.99 premium.

I hope this trend continues.

[Alexander the o.k.]

Here's what they were in June

[eatingupblacktop]

[Alexander the o.k.]

New service station coming soon to location near you!

[eatingupblacktop]

[ÄkeNyberg]

if you guys wouldnt run v8 or v10 cars all around the states you wouldn't have that troubles with that gas prices.

i'm european and followin your threads here for quite a while - self running a LS430. Usually in europe people tend to buy diesel cars due to their efficiency. almost 75% of the custumer take a diesel. more power at lower rpms.

new german makes get about 1000 peak torque at 2000 rpm - that at about 7-8 liter gas for 100km. thats whats called efficiency...

dont misunderstand me - just wanted to point out whats possible and not all of you need big blocks to get a hot ride to work...

[JENunnez]

[eatingupblacktop]

[90LS400Lexus]

I have not put gas in my LS400 lately (because I have not been driving it :o . It was about $3.98 last week. I do know that today I bought some regular unleaded for my old Pontiac for $3.56 per gallon.

[SOMEONE ELSE'S GOT MY NAME]

I've started to see today a few stations with 3.99 premium.

I hope this trend continues.

Many experts (geology / economics) are saying based off the basics of supply & demand say $200/barrel in less than 5yrs ... conservatively. With inflation, that means we'll still be paying less than the EU or asia ... a measly $6.50 ish a gallon.

http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public...rudeoil0708.pdf

People get too excited over a little drop in price. (It came about simply because the U.S. finally started serious conservation ... but it only takes a couple months before the rest of the worlds demands picks up that slack) I wouldn't run out and buy back that Suburban. After a bit of downward price drops, we'll go up & up & up & up ... then down a bit ... then up & up & up & up, then down a bit ... and so on. Don't get me wrong, I like paying only $29 to fill the smaller hybrid, instead of $32.

[eatingupblacktop]

[nc211]

I've started to see today a few stations with 3.99 premium.

I hope this trend continues.

Many experts (geology / economics) are saying based off the basics of supply & demand say $200/barrel in less than 5yrs ... conservatively. With inflation, that means we'll still be paying less than the EU or asia ... a measly $6.50 ish a gallon.

http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public...rudeoil0708.pdf

People get too excited over a little drop in price. (It came about simply because the U.S. finally started serious conservation ... but it only takes a couple months before the rest of the worlds demands picks up that slack) I wouldn't run out and buy back that Suburban. After a bit of downward price drops, we'll go up & up & up & up ... then down a bit ... then up & up & up & up, then down a bit ... and so on. Don't get me wrong, I like paying only $29 to fill the smaller hybrid, instead of $32.

Yeah, but if it does hit $200 a barrel, which I personally doubt, then the balance of the economy should be able to support it. The US hasn't just finally started conservation out of choice, it has done it out of requirement by the economy. People are starting to adjust to the post-subprime environment and are realizing that they better start watching the wallets a bit more in general. It's part of the nervous economic environment in general, that, again, always seems to lurk around election times when the sitting president either must be replaced (8 years), or clearly will likely be replaced (Bush Sr. to Clinton, which funny enough was also at the time of one of our worst recessions in modern history).

You and I go back and forth on this stuff, and I hope you know I do enjoy it. I get the feeling you have more of a scientific background, and I have a financial one. I'm not saying oil couldn't go to $200 a barrel some day, but I think the only way it would be able to do so is with the support of the economy in general, and at a normal rate of pace (cost of living index). I also think, that when/if it does hit that level, it probably won't be such a dramatic player in the world's economy. I think technology advances will have made oil usage for transportation reasons much much less "hybrids, alt-fuels, better engines". I don't think anyone would really mind if gas were $6 a gallon, so long as that fill-up would last them like a 1,200 miles, instead of 300-450.

In terms of the supply and demand base argument for today's reasons for this rapid advancement in oil prices, I offer you the following example of why I think it's all b/s. 8 weeks ago, Iran says it can shut down the gulf's shipping lanes..oil goes up. A terrorist tries to blow up one pipeline in Nigeria and fails...it goes up. Some analyst at JP Morgan "huge position in oil futures by the way" says "he thinks" oil will hit $xx amount by xx date, it goes up. Just 8 weeks ago..... Now...Isreal is clearly preparing to hit Iran...oil falls... A pipeline is hit in Nigeria...it still falls... And just this week, Russia invades Georgia, attacking buildings and trying for the pipeline that produces 1,000,000 barrels a day....and yet the price still falls... If the basis used just a few weeks ago were truly supply and demand worries, wouldn't you have thought these real events would of been used for increased prices?

I'm still sticking to my theory from months ago that this is just a "profits grab" before the election.

PS: A snowball effect of current: DON'T fill your car up to full if you don't need it all right now! You're just wasting your money, as that price at the pump is based upon oil prices of weeks ago...it's going to continue to slide down. Just take what you need and wait to refill later when again the price is lower. A side effect of this is the perception of a continued decline in demand. Before, when they were going up, everyone was filling up to full to save money, as it would probably cost more tomorrow. That, created the artificial demand. Now, it's our turn to reverse this smoking-mirrors theory to the analysts who write that weekly inventory report!

[nc211]

I thought I would post up two charts that give a visual aid to the chatter-clatter I've been spewing on here. These came to me today in a larger economy report, a very good report. I think this will also explain why we might start seeing drops in profits for the big oil companies "Exxon, Mobile, BP". Notice the margin between the price of gas v. price for crude oil. It's pretty tight these days. In my opinion, this too will serve to push down the price of oil, as the big oil companies can't charge anymore at the pumps without triggering an all-out economic meltdown "which would hurt them far longer than anything else". So they really have no choice but to put downward pressure on the barrels of oil. Also note the historical chart relating to oil impact over the last 3 decades. Notice what follows the dips, and the timing of when these dips occured in relation to the political environment of that time.... If history does repeat itself, then upward ticks for several years should reoccur for us again "lower gas prices". I also find it interesting that at the times of the dips, conflict involving the US was ongoing or wrapping up. 73' = Vietnam, 80'=Iranian mishap from Carter, 91'=Gulf War 1, and of course now...

Doc6.pdf

[nc211]

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a second day on estimates that a U.S. Energy Department report today will show a decline in gasoline supplies.

Stockpiles last week probably fell 3 million barrels from 202.8 million barrels the previous week, according to the median of 14 responses in a Bloomberg News analyst survey. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. repeated its forecast that oil will top last month's $147.27 record this year because of emerging-market demand.

And so the Labor Day rally begins..... Funny how demand tanks, yet prices still go up because now supply is too low?

What'chew talkin' 'bout Willis!?!?! Tell me this ain't some bull-sh*t.

Supplies are dropping because refineries are operating at low levels,'' said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. ``There is no place to get gasoline except for existing stockpiles.''

Uh... can you say "market manipulation tactics?" What a profits grab. First they tell us we're using too much...so we all cut back. Now, they say we're using too little and they won't refine anymore because of it. What a bunch of back-room bull-sh*t! If this doesn't show you that certain folks don't "want" the prices to settle back down...i don't know what will. Goldman Sachs has a massive portfolio of oil futures it's hoping won't tank, which is exactly why their trying to fan the flames of concern. You know all that chatter in the news about 1 major US bank/investment shop being predicted to go under this year? I wouldn't be one bit suprised if it's not Goldman Sachs.

[SOMEONE ELSE'S GOT MY NAME]

I respect each member's view, and having said that, I'm presuming you feal that oilman T Boon Pickens:

http://cleantechnica.com/2008/07/10/t-boon...ghbor/#more-653

. . . . and Shell's premier Geo Scientist Dr Hubbert:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M._King_Hubbert

. . . . are incorrect when they, as well as our own intelegence bureaus:

http://www.btinternet.com/~nlpWESSEX/Docum...lseypeakoil.htm

. . . . speak of Hubbert's curve, peak oil, and the like.

Personally, our own personal "be safe" philosophy is to hope for the best, while you prepare for the worst. That said, our primary residence is in south O.C. coast ares, while our other home is in the Flathead Valley MT. ;)

[RX in NC]

Goldman Sachs is far from being alone in its trials and tribulations with the potential to go under. Lehman Brothers could fall through the cracks just as easily. Even ol' warhorse Merrill Lynch isn't assured of getting through this with only a few broken bones and a heavily-bruised ego....

Closer to home, Wachovia won't go belly-up but how the mighty have fallen. 'Course, it's not really Wachovia anymore - it's First Union. If the real Wachovia folks had been left in charge after the merger, Wachovia would be far better off today. Ken Thompson got exactly what he deserved a couple of months ago....

Serves 'em all right as far as I'm concerned....

[nc211]

Actually, I do think they're incorrect, mostly "I can see you rolling your eyes at me!". I agree someday we'll run out of oil. We'll also run out of food, space, wood, Polar Bears, etc.. To say "we better stop or we're going to run out of supply", is a pretty broad basis for theory. I don't disagree with them, or anyone, that says we'll run out. But, those three examples you cite, honestly, don't really sell me. T Boone Pickens is an investor by nature. He won't do anything that doesn't have a double-digit return on cost. There isn't a bone in my body that thinks his "plan" is to save the country, before lining his pockets with cash. I don't disagree with what he wants to do, but I don't put a lot of weight on his theories simply for the fact of his own personal interest in it.

For Hubbert's calculations to be accurate, he must know the total supply of oil in the world and demand cycles. That's just not possible to know. It can be speculated, but it can't be confirmed, especially in a scientific model of accuracy. Furthermore, as the article mentioned, it has not been accepted by all as fact.

James Woolsey's theories, very well might be true. However, I must admit, I'm not going to take anything seriously that's being "editedly published" on a website with links to other stories about "Did Sept 11 victims die for Enron?" from the Natural Law Party Wessex. Furthermore, Woolsey's theory about our invasion of Iraq was for just oil, is one I don't totally agree with. Our invasion of Iraq, for whatever reason not published, I believe was for us to (a) establish a forward base of operations in the hotbed of hatred for America to react against the elevated tactics of terrorists, as demonstrated on 9/11; (B) open the door to Iran if needed; © long-term investment in giving the majority population of Iraq the freedoms we enjoy, and win over their support to prevent further attacks like 9/11 against us. That, has finally started to take shape with our unwaivered commitment to stick it out and protect the innocents from the terrorist death squads. The payback in loyalty to us for this has the potential to be huge. If it were for oil, then we wouldn't be worried about supply and demand over here.

SOMEONE ELSE'S GOT MY NAME (SEGMN), I don't disagree that we'll hit the bell curve peak someday. I don't disagree that when that happens, it won't be pretty. But, I don't think we're at that level yet, and won't be for quite some time. Not with a few trillion barrels of oil in US territory, a few trillion square meters of natural gas sitting 35 miles off the coast of Destin, Florida. I do think we've all heard the alarm-clock though during the past several months, and we'll react with better technology "hybrids", infusion of alternate energy sources to supplement the grid "wind, solar, hydro". But doom n' gloom of oil going bye bye, just isn't something I'm willing to accept in my lifetime. Our supply hasn't been tapped for decades due to global economic balancing reasons, not because of supply worries. The world economic stage dictates just about everything. Otherwise, we'd of had oil platforms wrapped around this country since 1976 like a blanket and gas would be $.25 cents a gallon.

[PHML]

I just filled up at Chevron....it's down to $4.51 for Premium....it was $4.55 last week.

[nc211]

I just filled up at Chevron....it's down to $4.51 for Premium....it was $4.55 last week.

OUCH! Well, I'll stop complaining!

[Blayd]

Amazing when this forum was started not to long ago gas was only 1.60-1.75

[jcrome04]

Back in the good ol' days B) hahaha

Stooooopid T Boone Pickins....

too bad he doesn't say Canada and Mexico are our #1 and #2 providers of oil.

And I'd like to see calculations of how much of that "$70 billion" on foreign oil comes BACK to the US for OUR good and services!

[SW03ES]

I filled up with high test at 3.99 and was elated. Granted I think hobos were stealing my wheels based on where I was...but I was elated nonetheless...