It's Election Season

[nc211]

You know when Election Season is getting close, when every other news article/report you see is about how bad you life is supposed to be, and how much worse it's about to get!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't we supposed to get nuked by Iran, run out of oil, contracted typhoid fever, and lost our ozone layer by now? I could've sworn I heard this....36 months ago... :whistles:

Hey, here's a joke for ya:

A politician named "Weiner" (with a wife who worked for Hillary Clinton in the 90's) and a stripper from Hazzard Georgia named "Ginger Lee" walk into a bar.....

Just my own opinion here - but do yourself a favor and vote for the person that has the least amount of interest in having anything to do with you!

[pj8708]

Thank you for posting something semi-controversial! The forum has really been dead over this last month or so with very little traffic. Nice to have somebody kick up the dust once and awhile.

If you want election doo-do up to your butt, come to Iowa. As the state with the first in the nation caucus vote, we get ALL the candidates you can imagine. And with that comes all of the finger pointing, eating their own young, doom and gloom for the future if their not elected, and on it goes. If you learn to believe only one fourth of what they say, and then be suspicious of that you'll be alright.

Paul

[SW03ES]

It has been kinda quiet hasn't it?

[LEXIRX330]

I just want the Money that will be spent advertising!

[LEXIRX330]

It has been kinda quiet hasn't it?

Well I for one haven't seen any interesting articles from aol on here in awhile? :whistles:

[pj8708]

It has been kinda quiet hasn't it?

Well I for one haven't seen any interesting articles from aol on here in awhile? :whistles:

I guess Ive been slipping. LOL!!

[LEX-SV]

AOL is as good as dead, lol.

[pj8708]

AOL is as good as dead, lol.

It's for geezer's like me.

What do you recomend for those under 90?

[LEX-SV]

AOL is as good as dead, lol.

It's for geezer's like me.

What do you recomend for those under 90?

LOC, lexitup!

[nc211]

Straight from the horse's mouth. "...don't want to shrink government."

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/geithner-taxes-small-business-must-rise

I'm all for raising taxes on certain people in a realistic manner. I think we don't have a choice anymore. But, if I'm going to feel the pinch, then I want to make sure government feels the pinch as well. As many of you know, I am in the commercial real estate finance game. I do the big & sexy stuff around the country, mostly in DC. I can tell you, point blank with absolute honesty in an undeniable and proven manner - government is spending a TON of money on their real estate holdings and leases...a friggin' TON! They have been on a leasing spree for the past 2 years for all departments of government. Infact, one of those entities, the one that many believe caused much of this economic mess by being lazy, is currently in a lawsuit for a transaction worth hundreds of millions of dollars for a lease on a trophy quality asset in DC, that they didn't need. These leases are top of the market in rates and structure. Many are non-cancellable. Gone are the days of the plain-jane cheap government building, replaced by true-trophy quality assets, with price tags to not only match, but exceed. Don't get me wrong, as a lender myself, I love it when I get one of these leases (approved by congress might I add), they're considered "investment grade". But, if you think for one minute that Mr. Government is trying to keep hot meals for kids at school on the table by taxing your local barber shop...think again... In fact, two years ago I denied a transaction that included a TON of rental space for Geithner's crew just to admin the TARP program. A 3 year program, for a 15 year lease. Wasteful spending you want to see? There ya' go.

Vote for the guy who cares the least about your life! Give yourself some credit, give the private sector a chance to recover. I know many of us hated Bush. I know that won't change either. But, I do think it is time to point blame in a more centralized fashion on what happened three years ago. We had an SEC asleep at the wheel. We had a banking regulation industry made up of lawyers, not bankers, who could not understand what they were reading when it came time to understand the two key components that wrecked the economy...cross-default swaps, and collaterized debt obligations (CDO's). These two financial instruments are the cause of the collapse. The CDO's fueled the relaxed housing finance world that created the sub-prime market. Subprime lenders had an "easy out" with the CDO market waiting in the back parking lot with a bucket of cash to buy the loan. The cross-default swap world tied it all together like a spider's web. One web breaks, and it's linked to all the others. Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers and what happened very quickly thereafter....

We need to focus our regulations better. It's time to put down the ax, and pick up the surgical scapel. And, it is TIME to stop listening to the fear-factor chatter coming from guys like Geithner! Our own confidence in ourselves is being held hostage by this type of talk. You can do nothing...and I mean NOTHING, if you don't have confidence. Don't believe me? Look at recent history. We were attacked by terrorists in the most spectacular fashion. We had the national guard in airports. We had anthrax in the mail system. We had beheadings on national tv news. We had, what looked like, the entire arab world wanting to kill us. Yet, we were confident (from our blood thirst for revenge)...and we had unemployment of below 5%, and an economic boom that hasn't been seen in decades. It wasn't entirely a "shell game" either. It was real. Out of the 100 or so elements it takes to make that happen, 3 or 4 slipped through the cracks and brought it all down. 3 or 4 that should have never been allowed to happen in the first place, and wouldn't have if we had properly regulated the SEC, the American Banker's Association (ABA), and a few others. Commercial Real Estate guys knew it, and that is why you've seen that sector being the very last slice of the economy to fall....and the very first to get back up. $3 trillion dollars in CRE investments done from 02-07, and that's just the Wall Street avenue for financing, that doesn't take into account the portfolio lenders in the country (me) that hold their investments in-house to maturity. Of that $3 trillion, true delinquencies has never popped over 7% ($210 billion). Now, that sounds like a lot of bad loans, and it is, but taken in context of all the bailout money to auto makers and banking institutions...no so much. Many report higher numbers of deliquencies, but don't understand what they're talking about. Many investments are considered "deliquent" because they couldn't pay-off the existing mortgage at maturity with a refinance. Why? Because lenders can't figure out what regulations are coming from DC to feel CONFIDENT to write a new mortgage on that asset type (mostly hotels). These loans are still performing fine. They make their payments on time, without issue, and more than capable to qualify. They just can't find a lender willing to refinance it, other than the existing lender who is forced to "extend" the loan. These are not deliquences in the true term. I, work for an institution heavy on golf courses. Nobody in the US or Canada is willing to lend on a golf course (consider a luxury item). They are still performing fine, but we have to "extend" the loans. You want to talk about a "shell game"? This is it. Why has the CRE weathered so well? Well, we caused the last recession in the late 80's early 90's. We learned that if you don't understand what you're reading, you don't allow it.

Let me give you another example of the "fear-jacking" going on by our government to keep the private sector spooked and scared - We had the rating agencies in our office pouring over our portfolio. They down-graded us. We have NO deluiqencies, none, nadda. And, not only that, our investments are performing 5x's better than our peers. When we asked why are you down-grading us? They said you've got a large exposure to the "luxury" segment...aka golf and luxury resorts. When we said - yes, but look at our position in those investments, no issues, no high leverage, more than enough safe-guards. They said, yes, no issues today, but tomorrow will be another story. Our response - well, then you're obviously planning to do something stupid then. Guess what folks...they are.

I, for one, will be voting for the guy who cares the least about how I live my life. The damage has not only been done, but publically so, which will prevent the SEC and other banking regulators to make this mistake again (for 15 years or so anyway). Time to get our wealth back from the government.

No, I will not vote for Sara Palin or her crowd. I want a smart business man, period. No social organizers, or popularity contests. This time, it's ALL business, proven, not spoken.

OK - NC211 Rant complete. Have a nice weekend!

[pj8708]

I've enjoyed reading your piece and have copied it to a friend as well. Thanks for sharing the information.

[smooth1]

Yeah, I've always found it quite funny how politicians can raise hundreds of millions of dollars for ad campaigns to get elected and then look us square in the face and say there just isn't enough money in the budgets for educational programs, the arts, public schools and medical services.

I read a bumper sticker once:

"It would be a great day in history when our education system had enough books, computers and highly advanced programs for learning and our military had to have a bake sale to buy a new bomb."

[pj8708]

Yeah, I've always found it quite funny how politicians can raise hundreds of millions of dollars for ad campaigns to get elected and then look us square in the face and say there just isn't enough money in the budgets for educational programs, the arts, public schools and medical services.

I read a bumper sticker once:

"It would be a great day in history when our education system had enough books, computers and highly advanced programs for learning and our military had to have a bake sale to buy a new bomb."

Absolutely right on!!!

Paul

[lenore]

Our schools would have the necessary funds if it werent poured into non-teachings staff and outragous salaries for supertendents and vice pricipals and golden retirement hand shakes...The level of staffing outside the classroom is a crime...

[LEX-SV]

School administrations are not cost-effective or efficient in many parts of northern CA.

[lenore]

School administrations are not cost-effective or efficient in many parts of northern CA.

That is just the tip of the iceburg....amazing what they get for retirement....some over 100% of their salaries...

[nc211]

I'll tell you what I'm going to enjoy watching, is how Obama and his team approach the Wall Street firms and banking community for donations... you know, the whole "it's me or the pitchfork, boys" comment he did to them a couple of years ago, and going on Leno saying the banking and investment community is basically nothing but a bunch of thieves and dishonest folks, and don't encourage your kids to grow up to be a banker, but an engineer instead.. "something that makes a difference, that matters to American lives..."

Long memories when it comes to lost revenues.....long memories indeed. I recall somewhere on here me saying he was making a huge mistake by attacking the "clearing house" of the US economic engine "Wall Street". Love 'em or hate 'em....you've got no choice but to accept them, if you like and want a capitalistic economy, which is what we are, and have been since day one!

I'm not saying throw out the rule book and let the economy run wild. But dang man, get your foot off the brake long enough to let the private sector to get the car through the innersection before we get run over. We're playing in traffic here!

Oh...and to liven up the place a bit around here... A little throwback to the days of NC211 before he got married and had kids and started losing his hair..... Libya? What the heck is that all about? This thing just came out of nowhere. We don't even know who we're supporting, and if you think those rebels are our friends....you're crazy! You know there are dudes in 1984 Bayliners running across the Gulf with the weapons we're providing them...straight to Yemen and the like. Why are we trying to kill Whacky Quacky? I thought he was "reformed" to the western ways. Guy attacks Bush year after year about Iraq, said the Surge would fail "um, wrong", and yet, Libya? Can you imagine what would've happened if Bush went after Libya like this? Heck, we didn't even want him to hit Iran, who has constantly been saying they're going to wipe people off the planet once they get a chance...and we refused to believe that Bush was telling us the truth about their intentions with nuclear energy development, said it was a lie to get us to fight them... Anyone see the news lately? Akwad-on-a-wall is saying they're not affraid to develop nuclear weapons, and now are firing off their latest missles as a show... But, we need to get Whacky Quacky instead. He's the threat...

[nc211]

By the way...I'm a little "Reagan'd" these days. The Military channel has been running a series called "Decisions that shook the world" about tough calls Presidents have made that turned out right. FDR and Reagan have been on this week. My kind of leaders!

And I'm left at home alone for the past two weeks....wife and kids at the beach back home in NC. Drove them down about 10 days ago. 900 miles in 18 hours, straight, in the 4runner with 90k miles. Spent fathers day in the airport coming back to *BLEEP*cago. Flawless SUV! God bless the inventor of the portable DVD player, and curse the inventor of Thomas The Train cartoons! I nearly lost it somewhere around Winston Salem. So....I'm left to my own entertainment, that's sitting in the fridge. Let's just say, when the garbage man empties the cans on Monday mornings, mine is the loudest, by far Consider you newbies lucky on here that I haven't been preachin' too much! This is usually about the time I solve the world's problems. Guess I've got one too many of my own to fix to give a rip about all the others!

[lenore]

AHHHHHHH we miss your dialog.....

[LEX-SV]

Death is a natural event for all. Enjoy.

[nc211]

Just a little support to my rant in post #10. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you Exhibit A - the agency responsible for responsible investment activity in the capitalistic world we all make our livings in. Better raise that national debt ceiling boys, rent's due on the 15th!

http://www.globest.com/news/1950_1950/washington/311853-1.html