nc211

Stocks are going up....oil is going down.... Now, that's what I call "the right path to follow!"

OPEC announced it will cut production by a whooping 2.2 million barrels a day, for a total of 4.2 million barrels cut since September. Yet, the price isn't moving! I'd have to say, although possibly a little premature, that the speculators have left the building. Can you imagine what would have happened if this announcement were made just 90 days ago! Oil would of been $400 a barrel in a matter of hours! Edit: In fact, price is doing just the opposite now, and rapidly falling! It's heading into the $30's! Can you say $1.00 days again!

Haaa. I don't think I want to know what you're doing with your mouse Dens! Hahaha! I've got a wireless mouse as well, and when it starts acting up like that, it's always been the batteries too. I've got another question relating to computers: Anyone finding that the Norton Security software is becoming a real pain in the !Removed!? I've got that 08' norton protection suite, and I swear, it drags down the computer like a lead weight! I even upgraded the internals a few weeks ago with a new motherboard, dual-core Intel 2.3 processor, and like 2 gigs of ram....yet it still gets all funky-monkey on us and runs and runs and runs and runs. Anyone else finding Norton to becoming like the old AOL days, where if you installed AOL on your computer, it went EVERYWHERE and bogged down the machine?

Hahaha! It's the Santa from this year's Christmas party at Lehman Brothers! For those of us who know the movie, I found it fitting in today's environment. Looking good Billy Ray...Feeling good Lewis!

Well folks, we're about to see just how much money is left in the market. OPEC is on deck to cut production levels around 2 MILLION barrels a day. So, we'll see what oil does in the market. I have a feeling, it will gently bounce, but I think the downward trend in prices of recent, is here to stay for a bit. But, we'll see!

I bet that thing is a real !Removed! to align and balance!

As the guy who replaced every single suspension component, ball joint, mounts, tie rods on his 95' LS400, let me chime in here, if I may. This one is right up my alley. I replaced all control arms, strut rods, struts, ball joints, outter tie rods, stabilizer bar bushings "might want to check those by the way, at those miles, I'm betting they're close to the end, and will cause clunks". BUT I forgot to replace one part, just one stinkin' flippin' part. When I sold my 95', at 132k miles, in 2007, it might of had a 12 year old vin #, but I promise you, it had a 24 month operating age. And yet, on those chilly mornings, going out of my neighborhood at speeds below 35 mph, and hit a bump...POP POP up front... Anyone care to guess what the part was? No? Ok, I'll tell you... The strut MOUNTS! After I had nearly killed myself from exhaustion one weekend from replacing all the front end suspesion parts with new OEM parts, I realized I forgot to order the upper strut mounts, and was too damn lazy to go back in and do them, for the next two years. If all bushings look ok "don't forget the stabilzer bar bushings", and you've still got the POP POP from blunt bumps on chilly mornings....check the uppper strut mounts. Two cheap parts that make a difference in the smoothness of the car.... Stabilizer bushings, and new steering rack grommets. The rack gromments are rubber wraps that go around the rack. Over time, they get compressed, and eventually the rack will wiggle loose on it's seat and start to make faint clunk clunks. It won't wiggle loose to the point of being dangerous or anything. The mother of mother parts for smooth operation though..the #1 part..... is Engine Mounts. New Engine mounts can transform the car like you wouldn't believe. Plus the transmission mount too. Ahhhh...feels good to talk suspension parts again! It's been a long time!

Chances are, by the time they got your payment and processed it, it was beyond the 30 day window. In regards to the late payments being reported to the agencies, across the board, it has to exceed that 30 day window. If it's 24 hours past, it's late. Additionally, their lending platform is set up "as most all others are too" where the computer will record the day the payment is entered, against the day it was due. If it was beyond the 30 day window, it will automatically make note of it on a seperate report that gets emailed to the agencies. Everything is so automated. The rating agencies impose on most companies that if they want to pull their data, they've got to contribute to it as well, on their terms "the automated reporting platform".

This is a little too much to be putting on here. Somebody clearly died. Anyone on here who might have had to face something of this nature in their personal lives, might be negatively affected by watching this. just my opinion.

It's pretty amazing that just 5 months later, articles and predictions like this are starting to swirl around...It's so amazing, infact, that it doesn't seem right. Seems to fast. But, the golden rule, the higher it goes, the faster it falls.... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bcda848c-c62a-11...0077b07658.html RX, did you get out on the plus side?

This thread has gone from "this is nuts, you're nuts, this is horrible, etc..", to "yippie!, this is awsome, i love this, rock on!" As I've done in the past, I will spew my forward thinking thoughts and predictions on what is coming down the chute now. Now that we're in the "limbo" phase of the presidency, the world is adjusting to what is coming, and we're starting to see what some of the parts of the economic platform will look like. These are absolutely crucial for any recovery to happen. I returned from our annual home office christmas round of meetings about what has happened, and what is predicted to happen. You know me, I believe only about 30% of these "expert" predictions, simply because any expert who says "nobody could see this coming", is no "expert" in my opinion. From his charts and graphs, there are market swings of volatility, gap-out spreads of interbanking lending rates, confidence indexes, etc.... that are at all time highs "not good highs", ALL TIME. But, and the reason why I place this here in this thread, ALL of these charts and graphs this guy presented to us, with thier all-time highs, were on the heels of the ALL TIME highs of OIL. Like I've said in the past, housing triggered this mess, but oil fueled it. Now that oil is coming back into affordable levels, things can, and will, begin to settle. 2009: The next shoe to drop: Commercial Real Estate. At the end of this mess, CRE will show that it was the last to fall, but the first to recover. Simply because of the degree of difficulty associated with the job. It's a whole different ballgame then residential lending. Economy: Many are saying 2009 will be worse than 2008. Many are saying no recovery is to be had in 2009, and pinning their hopes on 2010 instead. I, disagree, somewhat. 1st Quarter of 09' is going to continue to sting. But, I think 2nd Quarter "spring time" will be the kick-off to the recovery. I've based my presumptions in the past on the "human" element, the main element. Charts, graphs, currency balances, supply & demand, are all dependent on one thing....consumer confidence. I think when the snow begins to melt, the windows can be opened, spring cleaning is started, we're going to find a population that is sick and tired of being on the downside. I also think, as mentioned before, this will be the time when folks begin to replace some of the items they've bought during the past 3 years of the drunken spending spree "thanks to Visa". Not all will replace, many won't, but the need will begin to appear. I'm just rambling.....I'm happy to see we're back in the $1 ranges. I'm happy to see reports of further decline predicted. I'm glad we're finally on the upside of benefit on the oil markets, and can breath. I think the days of last summer are gone gone gone "as are the hedgefunds that manipulated it". Prices might bounce up and down while OPEC does it's thing, but not like we've seen over the past few months, and years. Bush oil....is outta' here! Plus, regulators are returning, and the lasting effect of smaller cars is and will continue to take-hold. I think we're certainly on the path to $1.00/gallon prices for the next several years. Unless something crazy happens, like Iran. But, that'll be a blip. Now, we've got to position ourselves to be on the upside of benefit in the other markets. We've got some government dollars to repay, and that's done with Consumer Confidence. Watch that index...as it's the one with the most telling tale to tell. It's the only one that will tell you what tomorrow looks like. All others simply react to it. It's at the bottom of the bottom right now...and when you're at the bottom, there's only one way to go!

I filled the chug-a-lug 4runner today, had between the 1/4 and 1/2 tank left....for $19 bucks! :D :D

I went ahead and got the below Dunlop SP Sport Signature tires. I had Discount Tire price match Tirerack, but they had to order them, so it'll be a week or so before they're put on "i'm on the road next week". From the reviews, specifically the Mazda 3 owners, this one seems like a pretty good bet. The Mazda isn't worthy of really expensive tires, as it's not built to be an ultra quiet luxury cruiser, but a buzzy little toy. RX, I took your advice from a few weeks ago when you posted up about your experience buying tires. I was able to get these tires, plus all the hazard crap, for $600 and change. The car has those TPMS sensors, which I got dinged $50 to have "rebuilt". I choose discount tire because they're also in Chicago, close to the new house. Smooth, I agree the ultimate route for snow weather is the dedicated snow tires! But in this case, if the weather is that bad "or forecasted to become that way", I'll just use the 4runner....which is on deck for tires as well, which will SUCK!! On that one, it's Michelins all the way, as they last 75,000miles+ on that car, but cost over $200 each "17' wheels". God, I'd hate to have one of those Infiniti FX SUVs, with the 21' standard tires. Plus, I don't think I'd feel too comfortable with traffic all sliding around me in the Mazda. Granted, it's got airbags everywhere, but at the end of the day, it's still a tiny little tin machine, unlike the 4runner which can take a significant hit with no problems. DJ: That is my understanding too about the 93 rating. Oddly enough though, the OEM tires have the lowest rating of them all, yet everyone says there is no comparison between them and the others with higher ratings. They say the OEM's are the worst, which I certainly agree with RX's idea! http://www.tirerack.com/tires/tires.jsp?ti...inSpeedRating=H

I'm replacing the tires on our Mazda 3 (205/50-17in), as the OEM Goodyear RSA's are nearing the indicator bars. Got 28k miles out of them, which ticked me off until I read most only get about 20k. One of the things I would like to do is smooth out the ride and noise a bit, and I'm confused on the load ratings of tires. The OEM tires have a 88 rating for load, and the vast majority of the replacement options all have 93 ratings. From what tirerack says, the increased load rating can create a more choppy and harsh ride. This was confirmed by the guys at discount tire as well. BUT, when I read the reviews of these tires, everyone says they're far better than the OEM Goodyears that came with the car. They say they ride smoother, are quieter, and just overall better. So, I'm confused???

Am I glad I quit smoking years ago!

Haahaa!! Water heater = tankless/endless hot water, thanks to the gas line to the furnance and gas fireplace in the main level family room. You can BET on the snow blower! It's 1st on my list! But, gotta wait to get it up there, as we don't even carry them down here. I'm too darn old and lazy to shovel that driveway! The house is also prewired on all floors for surround sound, cable tv in all rooms, and built in wireless internet in the basement's networking box. It also has a ADT security system with key fobs. The rugs though, are the wife's department. We looked at some yesterday at linen n' things "going out of business", and those things were on sale, at $5,000 :o ! So, hope target has some cheapos that we like, because you will never catch me spending 5 grand on anything that doesn't have either an engine, 12 speakers, can blind you, or will allow me to have something later with an engine, 12 speakers, can blind you...aka...a jewelry for the wife. the trick now, is getting out of our house here, which we own. the company will pay the real estate commision, and professional movers, which is a huge help. But we've got to get it ready, and in a hurry before the economy finally hits raleigh, which it's preparing to do. Thankfully though, we're in the 4th fastest selling zip code in the area, with an average market time of 30 days, whereas the rest of the area is at least 120+ days.

Good points Josh! I had not thought about the heated garage aspect, makes perfect sense! It's been 13+ years since I've lived in a snowy place "KC". My wife never has. It's going to be interesting, to say the least. We're actually starting to get excited about this now. We've got a lot of work in front of us over the next couple of months, it won't be easy. Plus, our little boy will probably start teething soon too, which won't be fun. But, before I am anything to anyone in this life, I'm a father, and will always do whatever it takes to make sure my family has everything it could ever possibly need, and want "within reason". If the worst that happens to us in this economy, is having to hide out in a very nice area of Chicago for 36 months, I won't complain. I'm not really expecting the Mazda to get a lot of road time in Chicago actually. Our house isn't but 3 blocks from the train that I'll be taking in/out of downtown. Won't need the car except on weekends. But, after driving up there for a few days, I'm already going to buy some softer-sidewall tires, otherwise it might fall to pieces "and I". The roads are horrible up there! Now that it's cold out, and I don't have to use the a/c in the Mazda, I'm in love with that little speed demon again. I'm going to miss these smooth blacktop twisty hilly country roads here in NC, badly. Man, am I really glad we bought that 4runner now though, whew, that decision has turned out to be the right decision by a mile. I'm definetly going to look into the undercoating, and will be stocking up on some touchup paint from the dealerships for both cars. We've got the house now. Here are some photos of where the NC family will be hiding out from the economy. It's definetly a renter's market now, for sure! 8 months ago, we couldn't of had a shot at something like this at all. But now, shoot, if it's "for sale", it's "for rent" too. All you gotta' do is approach the realtor and say "we're interested in renting it, if the seller wants to wait a couple years and try to sell it then". Every house we saw, from $5m 8,000 square feet mansions, to $300k 800 square feet shacks, were that way. Ours is about 2,600 square feet +/-. When we walked out of it, got in the car, I asked my wife what she thought. She said "I love it more than our home, and would be sick to my stomach if I owned it and had to rent it". Luckily, I'm the perfect "tenant" you would want living in your house. And the owners have agreed! It was built around 1900, and renovated down to the studs in 2005. We're getting excited about this!

I filled up the family hauler this weekend (4runner) for $45 bucks. When I looked at the ticket, I was pleased, even more so when I saw I was paying $2.19/gl. I thought "well, it's doable", then I realized I was filling it up with premium "it doesn't require it, doesn't run any different", and was actually ok with it! We're at $1.89 around here for regular, and falling! :D

You know, Blake, you're like the umteenth person who's told me they love Chicago. I haven't heard one person say a bad thing about it actually, not one. Which is a HUGE help for us, as we've been pretty uneasy about this transition. Timing couldn't be worse too, as my wife's only sibling "little brother" is heading off to Iraq "was Afghanistan but got changed, thankfully" around the time we're leaving here as well. It's pretty heavy right now for my wife's parents. But, in my line of work, it's sink or swim time, with the vast majority of folks far more senior than I, sinking. So, I'm super happy and feel ultramega lucky to actually be on the increasing side of the equation. No complaints at this point, but some concerns. One of which, I've posted on the Mazda 3 site as well, regards the roadsalt conditions up there in the winter. Our 4runner is from Chicago, and I can tell you from being underneath it, seeing some of the bolts I've had to replace, rust is a concern of mine. Not so much on the 4runner, as it's pretty much a real beast that take just about anything. But the Mazda is a different story. Its sheet metal is more tinish, and folks do report rust problems around the fender wells, trunk, and other usual areas. Granted, you know I'll be taking great care of the cars, but was curious if you or anyone else can recommend some preventive steps to be taken? I've heard of some clear 3M tape being applied in the fender wells, and even heard of some kind of eletronic magnet gadget attached to the frame of the car that changes the polarity of the car to prevent rust from forming "which sounds like bs to me". Any suggestions????? I didn't know Marty was in Chicago? I'll have to send him a PM soon! We didn't make it down to Naperville during our tour last week "ran out of time", but I hear it's really nice as well! Hopefully if you return to the windy city someday, you and I will actually get the change to meet in person! Dens: I know Joplin. Moving anywhere from Missouri "pronounced Misery" is an upgrade! I lived in KC for several years as a teenager. Left when I was 21 for NC, and never looked back. Although, I do miss the party-cove at the Lake of the Ozarks sometimes, but my arthitis in my left hip quickly reminds me the sun set many moons ago for that time of my life.

My my my, look who's ready for their AARP card! Hahaha... happy belated B-Day amigo! Hope you had a good one! At your posting rate, you'll be making Blake and I look like amateurs before the snow melts.

I agree, and something just doesn't smell right to me about all of this. However, I do recall a few years ago that all the chatter was about how we weren't saving enough, using the credit cards too much, and leveraging everything to the hill. I think that has come full circle now. I agree with SWO about the products these three offer to the market place. It's tough to support the "buy American" slogan these days, when Toyota, Honda, Subaru, etc all have plants here now too. At the end of the day, the simple fact is, the car consuming public simply want what the foriegn makers offer, over what the american makers do. I'd love a Tahoe, but would rather "like" a Toyota if it means I don't have to waste my time at the shop all the time chasing rattles, replacing parts, having water pour in through the door seals when it rains, catch fire in my garage, etc... In my opinion, GM, Ford and Chrystler have no one, no where, no how, to blame for the mess they're in, but them themselves. They've had decades to fix their problems, and haven't. They've had billions of revenues to spend in the research and development department, but produce the Cavalier.

the reason why the price keeps falling, even in light of recent international events, is because the speculators that drove it up last summer, are gone now. there could be just one gallon of oil left in the world, but if nobody is willing to buy it, it'd still be worthless, no matter what supply and demand was. this was the case in July. supply and demand weren't out of whack "as being reported", the hedge funds were fleeing into oil to try and recoup their losses taken from the real estate side. and were manipulating the reports and market to get it as high as possible. this week's barrons magazine says this exact same thing. hedge funds have been pretty much wiped out over the past 60 days, so the speculators have pretty much left the field. most have taken their profits and run away to wait this out, while others got wiped out altogether.

In terms of the union contracts and labor expenses associated with the trouble of these companies, I offer you the following example: I am currently working on a hotel deal in Washington DC. There are 6 competitor hotels to the subject hotel. The subject hotel is a non-union facility. The competitors are union. The subject property looks better, performs better, and is in better shape to survive the coming bomb to that sector next year. I've seen the labor costs of all of these properties. The incomes of the staff don't vary that much from the union and non-union shops. However, management has more flexability to run their property more effeciently and effectively in the non-union property, which is why it makes a lot more money, can reinvest in upgrades to the property, and is the market leader of that area of DC by a longshot. I was in NJ three weeks ago, pulled up to a gas station to refill the rental car, and was chewed on by a guy who came over as I was pumping my own gas, that I was taking his job away from him. He informed me, that in that area, nobody pumps their own gas, it's against union policy. That area of NJ is a dump, and I can see why.

Market players are preparing for $40 a barrel prices soon, no matter if opec cuts production even further!!!! :D :D :D I think that would translate to the $1.35-$1.45 range!!!! Supertankers are in huge demand now too, not for shipping purposes, but for STORAGE purposes! There's too much oil now! Hahaha....Go flippin' figure that one, just 4 months from the $147/barrel days! And reports are starting to come out that Iran might not be able to sustain their nuke ambitions, and feed their country at the same time!

Josh, man am I sorry to hear this news! :( But thankfully the cancer is addressable and correctable with minimal impact on you and your system. Life sure does know how to throw some pretty nasty curveballs sometimes. Two weeks ago, a family friend died of a stroke, at the age of 39. Last week, my wife's cousin had a stroke and nearly died, at the age of 38, and now you've got a battle of your own. Man, this is just unreal. I'm confident though amigo that you'll pull through this a-ok. Who knows, maybe they'll give you a bionic bladder and kidney and you'll be able to drink kegs of beer at a time! ;)