nc211

My thinking after last week's activity is this: Anyone trying to get re-elected, won't get my vote, from the top down, period. 10% approval rating in congress should say enough. And the absolute childish antics that went on during the bail-out proposal votes, simply makes me sick to think THOSE are the kind of adults representing this country. If they're in now, I surely hope they're not come election time. I'm 10000% on board to throw the dust up in the air completely and see where it settles. Anything's got to be better than what we've been seeing over the past few months and years from these people. Peolosi, what a freakin' joke, on all levels!

http://www.toyota-4runner.org/showthread.p...;threadid=28414 The link above will give you an idea of what to look for when doing this. We 4runner owners have been doing this for years, and we've got pretty much the same setup as you guys. In fact, I just redid mine this past Sunday. I do it about every 10k miles or so. A couple of suggestions from my experiences: 1) Buy a grease gun that has the flexible hose, as suggested. But, either buy one with at least a 18 inch hose, or buy an extension piece for the hose. It can be VERY frustrating trying to get the attachement onto the zerk fitting of the drive shaft, when the second you take your hand off the attachement, the weight of the grease gun itself pulls it off. You need some extra slack so the gun rests on the ground while you attach the fitting to the zerk. 2) Bleed the gun to make sure when you're pumping the grease, grease is coming out, not air. If you don't, and you start injecting the grease into the zerk, you will hear the crackling of the old grease coming through the U bolts, but it's being pushed by the air, not the grease, which is bad. I for one, don't stop when I hear and see the old grease coming out. I stop when I see the new grease coming through the seals, then wipe off the old. 3) The slider yolk, which is the cause of the clunk, is a bit tricky to figure out how much grease to put into. Some say 5 or 6 pumps, some say more, like 10-15. This past weekend, I put 11 pumps into the slider sleeve's zerk. I've been driving the 4runner for two days now, and have not noticed the thump at all, and things seems to be quite smooth. How long that will last, is yet to be seen. The last time I did this, about a year ago and 10k miles, I put in 5 pumps. It lasted about 3 months, then the thump began to return, albeit not nearly as bad as it was prior to the service. It's not hard, but not all that easy either. You'll have to move the truck back and forth about 12-18 inches to get the zerks to face you "sometimes they're facing up towards the car which makes it impossible to access." But once it's done, you'll notice smoother operations throughout the car. Even at highway speeds, no vibrations are felt in the floor from the spinning U clamps.

Thanks fellas! 35 is setting in on me pretty well actually. I think I'll enjoy this next phase of my life, the 35-55 period, hopefully. Now all I need is another LS in the garage to complete the package! But, everytime I find a LS430 I like, I'm always outbid by some dude in DC who keeps thinking about trading is 03ES in on it! Don't know who he is, but I wish he'd pull the trigger already, so I could get a clean shot at one myself! Hahaha...!!!

Going down to the exact dollar, it breaks down to $2295/person. You had me excited for a second there ;) With that said, Steve is absolutely right. It's somewhat shortsighted to say no to this bill simply because of not wanting to bailout these companies that have admittedly screwed up. There is an extremely likely possibility of a financial collapse if something is not done which will affect us all (read: companies allowed to fail). One thing that many people are reacting to is the term "700 BILLION DOLLAR BAILOUT." Many people are assuming that 700B is simply free money given to these companies. It is not, the treasury would be purchasing assets from institutions which would allow the institutions to start lending again and basically jump start the economy. These assets would be repackaged and eventually sold back to financial institutions. It is not a gift check. Like Steve mentioned, this could potentially be profitable to the taxpayers. There were add'l provisions in today's bill which protected you and I as taxpayers. Again, it's not a $700B blank check, there is going to be a purchase of assets which do have an underlying value. As Steve said, the treasury would also be able to take ownership interest in those companies. Also, if this bill caused a loss five years from now (if it overpaid for the assets), it required the president to propose legislation to recover the loss from the financial industry itself. Credit standards have tightened so much so quick already. To get the best rates on loans, many lenders now require a 720 fico or better. On an 80 LTV Agency home loan (Fannie/Freddie), you actually have to have a 740 fico to avoid rate adjustments. Roughly 6 out of 10 Americans would not be able to get these best rates today due to their fico. Imagine if this gets even worse if lenders start tightening even more. Less homes purchased, less automobiles purchased, even credit cards... Standards of living could go downhill pretty damn quick for you and I. The saddest thing is that it appears that this is being turned into a political issue on both sides of the aisle with all kinds of finger pointing and posturing. And on a related note, here is an interesting article here regarding the vote breakdown Quoted for Truth: I like this posting, good job jobyfreddel . I point out your comment about 6 out of 10 won't qualify for the good rates, as basis for an earlier comment I made about how important it is now to maintain your assets "home, car, etc" now. Keep your home in tip-top shape, put in the sweat equity now, will help it's value and curb appeal, which will help attract those 4 with the good credit to buy it later. And get on your neighbors to clean up their acts too, if need be. It's time for communities to come together and tighten up the ship, to protect their marketability. Watch out for the "renters", I've got one in my neighborhood I've been watching, and will now have to address as they have a 99' Infiniti Q45 sitting in the street with bricks behind it's wheels "obviously e-brake doesn't work". That's against HOA rules, and I'm going to make sure they know it. It looks bad, and won't fly. That sort of stuff we've got to watch out for. Wall Street certainly has been the economy over the past 5+ years, that's for sure! It's been the ATM machine, pumping in the global capital, and taking it out. That'll change now with more regulations sure to come back into play, as they should in my opinion. "Securitization" has gotten way out of control! I mean, when movie studios are funding their film productions with securities funnelled through Wall Street, it's gotten bad. I propose the following alteration to the bailout plan. Instead of us tax payers buying up the bad assets and freeing the banking community of having to deal with them "putting the responsibility on us", I say every bank in the country be REQUIRED to estabilish a "bad bank" sidecar, which will hold all of the questionable assets. Then, we taxpayers, loan the bank the required funds to get liquidity flowing again, in exchange for ownership stock in the bank itself. The BANK is then responsible for managing the bad assets in the sidecar holding company, sell them off when the market returns "and it is returning guys, don't let the bad press fool you, it's being set up as I type with several hundred billion dollars being pooled into funds to buy up these assets at discounted prices by private investors". If the bank fails to sell off their bad assets, and the fed has to take control, no only do we get the bad-bank assets "as we're planning on now anyway", but we get the GOOD assets too via the ownership stocks. If the bank doesn't fail to sell off the assets "managing the problem instead of the problem managing you", which will most likely happen, as they sell the assets, they then buy the stock back from the fed and begin down the road to recovery. As it stands now, with the $700b package, we're just taking the bad assets, and putting the responsiblity of managing them on us, which I'm beginning to have a problem with. $700b for all troubled assets, or $700b for the potential of all troubled assets mixed in with good ones too. Seems to make a bit more sense to me. Eitherway, as RX, SWO, and I "and other" have all agreeded in a few posts further up, the #1 thing that MUST happen for any recovery to start happening, is transparency. We MUST locate and expose the bad assets. Until that cover of secrecy is lifted, nothing will happen, as confidence won't return until then.

I must admit, after seeing 60-Minutes last night and learned the original bail-out plan was only 3 pages long, I was scratching my head wondering why any president would support such a thing, that's less then a 5th grader's book report on Catcher in the Rye. But, I must also admit, as I've stated in the past with democrats and red-tape. They tend to love that stuff, which after 9/11 revealed was so thick, the FBI and CIA couldn't even share data together w/o violating some type of law. The fact that the house republicans are the ones to blame for failure of the bail-out plan, I'd have to say just handed the keys to the White House to Obama. I know I for one, am feeling that way at this moment myself.

The real estate market is pretty much on ice for the moment. One insulating shinning point to this though in regards to the market values, is that this swing is so violent, so over-the-top big, that it's almost too fast to really hit the market. When it's a slow and gradual down turn, values have the ability to digest it and correct accordingly. When it's all at once, like it's been during these past three weeks, the value market can't keep up, and simply goes "possum". It freezes, which just might be exactly what saves it. But, the market's got to come back realively quickly too, before the valuation market can have time to digest things. SWO: In terms of financing options for your potential clients, if you hear they're having trouble finding a lender with money to lend, I'd survey the area for credit unions. Now a days, there are loop holes for anyone to walk in and join a credit union. They don't have to have the connections via family members, or employers. Joe Schmoe can join any ole' time he wants. Credit Unions have been forced to be more cautious with their lending over the past several years "thanks to the American Bankers Assocation". They're now reaping those benefits, and are starting to be seen as the dark horse of the market. National City Bank is next to go, my prediction... Share prices are sub $1.30's. I hid out in the markets immediately following 9/11 with National City, doing residential loans while the commercial markets could figure out and recover from the hit. At that time, rates were on backside slide, so it was all refi's. It was great, it was easy, it was profitable. Took calls on my cell phone while I was 3 miles out in the ocean fishing with buddies. Those days are long gone now!

I don't think it much matters who's the President, but rather who's ruling the house. I think if roles were reversed and the democrats were in the White House, and Republicans in the house, we'd still have a childish p*ssing contest of a mess going on. Things only seem to move forward when one party rules both sides. Which, thankfully, is exactly what this country is based upon to not happen. If Obama wins and the dems maintain control of the house, things will move forward quickly. And, I can promise you, at somepoint, it'll all implode as well when the republicans lurk into the shadows and wiggle their way back to the house. Let us not forget the whiplashing the Clinton administration took during the following 36 months after Bush came in. Bush will face the same, as will either McCain or Obama in 4 to 8 years. If they're replaced in 4 years, then they must of really sucked. When they're replaced at 8, the country is usually sick and tired of them anyway and bash them right up to the end. Then applaud them with a "thanks" as they fly home. America is meant to be "stable", but not "stagnant", which is why we change leaders every 4 to 8 years. Start fresh, and kill 60% of the things the last president planted. Has it's good, and it's bad.

Well, Walk-All-Over-Ya "Wachovia", just Walked-On-Outta'-Here... And so with it, the potential for a few thousand mid-to-high management jobs in Charlotte. Ok boys and girls, that's close enough to my house, we can stop this now! I've had enough. I'm fortunate to be one of the only ones I know of now that still remains in the game, thankfully. The phone is buzzing off the hook though, and the blackberry goes off 24/7 too. Had 9 deals come in via the berry over the weekend alone. That's as many deals in one 24 hour period, than we did all of last year at $450m of production. When this is all over, and money comes back into the market and competitors show up to take some of this off of me, I'm going to find a quiet place on the beach, a case of beer, a fishing pole, and disappear for a few days. You'll get your updates on my wellbeing via the local news of "you gotta' see this drunkard story". I'm not complaining though, I'm feeling quite fortunate to be in the position I'm in. I know lots of folks who are pinned down with no end in sight. Of all of my close ties, I'm the only one with a job and stable horizons in this business. Those who are employed, aren't in the market at all and burning through their "rainy day" reserves, hoping things calm down before the reserves run out. SWO: I'm not that all suprised to hear you say things are still flowing though. Although it's pretty rough right now, capital will always flow to those capable of handling it. But I don't think main-street has yet felt the direct shot of this. I think that's the whole panic in congress and this huge $700b bill they're talking about. On a side note, we also just pumped over $600b of cash into the global lending systems world wide today as well. I tell you what, we better get a grip on this stuff, and soon, otherwise the dollar will be worthless. Boy, am I glad I did whatever I had to do to make sure I was never late on any payment I've ever had. Good credit scores right now, and in the foreseeable future, will be worth it's weight in gold. EDIT: Stocks are down over 700+ points....welcome to page 2008 in the history books. Should be one hell of a cheery chapter to read.

I absolutely agree! Wachovia "walk-all-over-ya'" certainly has some significant cracks right now. My gut says more than is being reported. But doubt they'll go under either. However, I do know they've practically disappeared from the big real estate lending game at the moment. So much "B & C" paper on their books, the required "reserves for loss" rules are locking up their capital. That, matched to the utter disappearance of wall street money for real estate, has them "and several others" pinned down at the moment. Funny enough though, credit unions are doing a-ok. And they can thank the american bankers association for it, as they've blocked the credit union's desire to increase their exposure to the commercial real estate world for several years. Credit Unions have been capped at 12% of their asset base exposure to commercial real estate since the 90's. They've been trying for the past several years to get congress to lift it to 20%, but the ABA has argued "unfair practices", since Credit Unions are non-profits..aka..no tax liability..aka..savings passed along in better rates. In our neighborhood, CFCU is the only one that makes commercial loans in the $10m-$20m window"Legacy in Winston does too, but much smaller $500k". However, interesting to note: State Employees Credit Union is the second largest in the nation! And they don't offer commercial anything, and just serve the population base of NC, yet they're #2 by a large margin. Only Navy Federal is bigger...by a large margin as well. The pink elephant in the room is Freddie/Fannie... Those two horses are in deep trouble. If they go down, then all bets are off in the economy and we've got huge problems. Mortgage rates will skyrocket, which will slaughter home prices across the entire country. We could go from "recession" to full on "depression" overnight, literally. It's scary man, real scary. I know several uber-players are starting to wiggle into positions to somewhat ease the blow, if it happens. Well, Fellas, just a little over a month later from this posting....and now Wachovia is on the ropes... This is some absolutely unbelievable sh*t going on. The entire financial landscape has been blown to pieces. I mean, WaMu tanked overnight, the biggest banking failure in US history, and it barely made a ripple in the water today in the stock market. Now, Wachovia and National City are on deck, with share prices falling faster then Drew Barrymore at a ChipN'Dales show. These past two weeks remind me of the last scene in the movie Fight Club, where they're watching the buildings crumble, one after another. If Wachovia goes, North Carolina just took it's first real hit from this economy "HQ in Charlotte". I don't know what to say anymore. I'm simply stunned. Usually failures like this start from the floor "regional banks" to the ceiling. Not this time though... Who here wants to bet that when you go for that new mortgage, you'll need to provide a DNA sample and your report cards from high school on, at least.

Thanks Amigos! I'm now in my "mids" and seriously thinking about some "meds". I spent the day doing what I like, tinkering and repairing. I had to fix a broken shingle on the roof from a storm a couple weeks ago, and started replacing my drip-caps over the 1st floor windows. They've started to rot a bit, so time to bust out some tools and get some dirt under my nails. I'm 35, and after a day on the ladder, I woke up feeling 95.

Oil surged $22.46 to $127.01 a barrel, after reaching as high as $128.55 - a $24 gain - at these levels it will be oil's biggest gain ever in dollar terms. The rally reached a fevered pitch as the session neared its close, partly due to the fact that Monday is the last day of trading in the October oil futures contract, which typically results in volatile trading. As of Tuesday, the front-month contract will be November. That contract showed prices up $6.44 to $109.19 a barrel. "The biggest news is that people are looking at the $700 billion plan as supportive of demand, supportive of the economy," said Peter Beutel. "Everything we are looking at right now says demand has a chance to come back if the economy starts to strengthen." Oil prices had been trending lower on worries that demand was faltering but those concerns seem to be abating, according to one analyst. "The fear has waned as far as the demand destruction" in the wake of the bailout news, said Neal Dingmann, senior energy analyst at Dahlman Rose. "The bailout has really stabilized this market." The government plan "has put in some support levels in there," at least temporarily, said Dingmann. If the economy has a chance to recover, then the oil market hopes demand for energy would recover as well. Aside from the dollar's weaking strength, thanks to the $700billion new greenbacks being printed. Who in the hell here thinks just because of this new bailout "or should I say the most recent", it's a great time to go rent an RV and drive around the country aimlessly? Demand recovery, within a couple of days of the bad-mortgage bailout? What in the hell are these people smoking? I know, I for one, won't be driving the 4runner on my 40 mile commute instead of the economical Mazda 3, just because the Fed has decided to buy $700b of bad mortgages. I hope, I seriously with all honesty hope, pray, cross my fingers, that everyone in this country decides to show these pencil-necked analysts wrong, and we continue to conserve. What a bunch of damned crooked thieves! If I were president, I'd ship some of these analyst to Camp XRay for an evening of being "probed" by a cattle stick. "Hey guys, we really hosed the american home owner with our ultra cool bogus structures, and the government bailed us out. Let's do it with oil now too. Ralph, you say demand is going to go up, and I'll follow in a day or so with a story about SUV's back in demand to support it. This will be great. We'll totally lie, cheat, and steal from dumbass Joe American, and they can't do anything about it. When it gets too bad, we'll just take the money and run and the government will just print more money to fix it". We can do something about it! Don't do ANYTHING beyond what you've been doing over the past several weeks! Discredit these guys!!!

You know what I don't understand about this election, is where are the indi's? Where's Ross Perot? There's no dark-horse. As divided as this country is, and the fact that our two choices are as equally flawed as they are skilled, you'd think an indipendent canidate would thrive in this kind of environment. If that party could produce a decent canidate, they'd probably have a strong running. Not one that looks like they just rolled out of bed or bar, like Ralph Nadar. Where are the indi's?

In light of this week's historical economic activity, I couldn't agree with you more on that statement Steve. Although I think we're getting on the right path to recovery, I think the value of the dollar is in pretty dangerous waters, and will continue to be there for quite some time. When they've got to turn on the money making machines to print more greenbacks to cover the bills, all it does is flood the currency markets and devalue it's strength. Having a president that is warmly accepted by the international community, has real value that can help. I think that characteristic alone, might of just made up my mind. Plus, I want the jobs back here in the US. After seeing the wonderful quality of China's products over the past 18 months, I want our manufacturing capability back here, in our own house. In fact, some could say it's a matter of national security. Led in baby toys, toxic power used to make plastics showing up in baby formula "to trick the protein tests", eschema showing up from the fabrics in thier furniture... They've got deadly problems over there. Not to start a bush bashing, but I think it was absolutely stupid to ship the blue colar jobs over there, and then tell the workers here to go sign up for classes at their local community colleges to learn a different skillset, was just horribly stupid, and clearly has failed, as evidenced by small-town America disappearing. So to answer this thread's question..... I am.

Well, all I know at this exact moment in time, is that after this week's historical activity, all I want to do is stare at a blank wall in complete silence and float the mushy mass between my ears with an ice cold beer (or 6). What a week, Gezz, what a week! I seriously hope next week isn't like the past few. My hairline can't take too much more of this stuff! We've got two deals in negotiations at the moment, worth $225m, that keep getting delayed due to direct market activity. All year long, it's been stuff from left field kiling our deals. In an office of just two, we've probably lost close to $1b of fantastic deals this year, due to strange left-field stuff, mostly market driven. But, thankfully we've kept our powder dry over the years, and have less than .001% exposure to the nasty elements out there, which is nice. But, damn man...this is freakin' insane. PS: Not to mention oil has gone up $12 bucks since Tuesday, to close above the triple-digit threshold, at $104.58! :chairshot: :chairshot: :chairshot: That's it...I'm outta' here...there's a beer somewhere in this stinkin' place with my name on it. If not, I'll steal one! Damn Damn Damn!! :chairshot:

I heard the best quote yet the other day regarding the two contenders ages and experience. "One should have been President 8 years ago, the other should be President in 8 years".

I think it's absolutely the right thing to do, no doubt in my mind. I think it'll restore confidence in the market, I think it'll accelerate the recovery, and I think we're now on the right path. Why they didn't do this before the failures began to show, is beyond me. I mean, imagine how much money would of been saved on not having to bail out Bear Sterns, AIG, etc, if they didn't have those toxic investments on their balance sheets? I think it's a great idea, because it will finally give investors the road map to where the bad stuff lives. Right now, nobody knows whos got what, and how much, which has killed the confidence of investors. Who knows how much Wachovia " for example" has of these toxic products on their books? You get a pool together of nothing but the troubled products, people will know where they are. It's kind of like when a community decides they're going to rezone and redevelop the bad section of a town. You drive out all the bad folks that commit the crimes, so you can replace the structures with nicer, investment grade, stuff. But, the side effect of that, is you then liter the rest of the community with pockets of bad folks here and there. And when a crime happens, you're not sure where to look. But before, when a crime happened, you pretty much knew where to go look, who to talk to, etc. In the 90's, when commercial real estate made the same mistakes residential has made now, it was the savings and loans that went down. Now it's the investment banks. Back then, the reaction in the markets was very similiar to this-a loss of confidence due to the lack of ability to see who has what and how much. So, the RTC was created to buy up all the bad deals and place them into a centralized location. They went through them all, kept the ones that looked ok 5 years out, and sold the ones in deep trouble at discounted levels. What could of been a huge financial burden to the tax payers, ended up only being about 5% of the total. It also was able to recover some of the lost jobs, as new shops started to crop up to take advantage of the RTC deals. It was the avenue out of the storm, and it worked. The decision today, is pretty much the exact same platform, and it too will work. Might take a bit longer "90's took about 18 months", but not much. It might hurt a little more too, but that shall pass as well. When I was 16 years old, my dad was hired to run the midwestern section of the country for the RTC. I remember reading a letter from the fed advising him and his associates "including family members" to not answer any questions if approached by the media. Luckily, we never were. His involvement with the RTC, rolled into what is now one of the biggest loan servicing companies in the country, Midland Loan Servicing, which has also created one of the dominate investors, PNC Bank. At 16, I didn't really know what was going on, didn't really care. But as I grew up, it was a trip to read about it, and things he did, in my finance text books in college. I think the fed made the right call on this one. Every investment sector has it's dark day. 8 years ago it was computers. 18 years ago it was commercial real estate. Today, it's residential real estate. In 8 years, who knows, but I'm confident it'll be something. However, I'm betting a large amount of "brokerage" firms will probably think otherwise. They tend to not like having to deal with government entities. They also know they'll be aced-out of the recovery efforts, as big-money investors will simply not engage them to get to the assets in the government pools. Government players typically don't and won't allow the brokerage fees, and will most likely require "direct" dealings. I feel bad for the brokers, because they're probably going to feel the pinch. But, in the same sense, "brokers" don't necessarily have clean hands in this either. It's been in their interest to close deals to get that fee. Some, aren't exactly properly aligned with the best interests in the deal, but just want that fee income.

I've gotta' tell ya', I'm really really really thinking about it. I'm setting aside my own opinions about what I think, and starting to listen to the global commentary, of which all seem to be for Obama. I'm doing this, because never before in my life time have we ever been in such international activities, as we are today. I'm not talking about just the war, but the economy, the negotiations for dealing with the remaining losers "Iran, N. Korea, Etc.". I think we've strained our relations with our international friends over the past few years. I don't see McCain offering the kind of leadership that can ease that tension without more of the same tactics, and I don't think the world can handle us continuing down that path for several more years. I think it's time we return to the world stage with a bit more of a gentle touch. I'm also tired of living under the "fear" cloud. Granted, I know we can't have a nuke-capable Iran. I know we can't allow certain things to happen. But, I think our stance over the past several years of "going alone if you're not with us", quite frankly, has allowed others to simply say "sounds good to us, send us a postcard when you get there." In conflict, I like McCain. In relations and creativity, I like Obama. Since we've been at conflict for years now, and have won "as evidenced by the Iraqi government asking us to step aside", I think it's time to be a bit more gentle. I don't think Obama will chicken out though if conflict should arise. But, I don't think he'll use it as a platform to do a bunch of other stuff too. We did Iraq, we're doing Afghanistan. We're tired, we're broke, and quite frankly, I think we're ready to say to those people "if our efforts over the past several years aren't enough for you to get up and take this on yourself, then we've got to let the course, take it's course." but, understand, if we have to come back, it won't be so "politically correct". At least, that's what I'd say if I were President, which probably is a good reason why I'm not! I liked Palin, until she spoke. I'm sorry, but I just can't take 4-8 years of that voice. Plus, I HATE the Clintons. And you know ole' Hillary is gearing up for 2012. She wants McCain to win, so she can win in 2012. Also, Palin may have some experience, but not enough to be President. Why McCain picked her, I don't know. He had me dead-solid, until then. But if there is one thing about McCain that I've learned to realize, is to never count him out. He's the kind of guy where you have to give his decisions some time to perform. That, I do like about him. I think he can see the twists and turns much further down the path then Obama. I don't like Biden, but at least "I think" he won't be fuel for tabloid chatter. After Bill Clinton, I never want to go through that again. I guess, at this point, I'm still a bit undecided. But, I am leaning towards Obama. If for anything, to listen to the world. And, he earned a lot of credit with me when Jesse Jackson said what he said about him. That man, and his buddy Al Sharpton, are two of the biggest racists I've ever seen. And I hope they toss those two in jail someday. I think they hurt race relations far more then they help it. You know those two jackasses came down here during the whole Duke Lacrosse thing and spewed their racially charged garbage against those kids. But have NEVER returned to appologize when the truth came out. What a couple of scumbags. Obama steers clear of that, fights against that kind of stuff, and race won't be an issue for me.

I've sent this scenario out to my counterparts within the industry. The feedback I'm hearing is "atta' boy, holy cow that makes sense, this could work, i like it, it's better than the alternative, are you kidding me? we missed this?" I also heard probably the best quote of the day regarding the current presidential players.... "One should've been President 8 years ago, the other should be President 8 years from now". hahaha... now that's rich! PS: 30-Day LIBOR, which for the past 90+ days has been hoovering around 2.49%, went up to 3%, which is HUGE for a one day adjustment. 30 day LIBOR takes the average of the past 30 days. Yesterday it spiked, but I thought it would just impact the 30 day average by a .01 or .02, not .50. I suggest all of my fellow LOC members on all ponds, that have a variable interest rate on thier credit cards/home equity loans, tighten the belt at the moment. Many of you are facing increased minimal payment amounts coming soon. This week's activity on all markets is going to hurt all of us. Oil will probably head north of $100 again, as capital flees into the safer waters of commodities again. But, this time, speculators will be silenced, unlike in June. Hell, they're all unemployed at the moment. Plus, Congress just passed off shore drilling, even at a limited level. PPS: RX, i'd be very interested to see what you charts are showing for spiders. Hedges are pretty much out the window at the moment, since credit-default-swaps are toast at the moment "brought down AIG". Russia has suffered two day of such losses, they had to close the boards early.

After the past 48 hours in the global stock market, the $85b government support to AIG, and the fact that for the first time in several decades "if not since the 1930's", the national deficit very well may exceed annual GDP numbers, I'm not sure where the bottom is either. I still think the election will play a big part in getting the ball rolling towards recovery by restoring some sense of calm in the debating of the fate of the country. But, given the fact that so many subprime varaible rate loans were written in 05-06, many on a 3/1 arm with no caps on that first rate adjustment, who knows what's coming when those start hitting. I do know that the daily LIBOR rate more than doubled yesterday, up 3.33% to 6.44%, the largest jump in over 7 years "since 9/11". This is significant for several reasons, but on Main Street America, tons of variable loans are tied to the 30-day LIBOR rate. If it stays up that high, the higher the 30 day average will climb. This has the potential to make several of those variable home equity loan payments skyrocket, along with several credit card bills, and the new wave of 3/1 arms (adjustable rate mortgage) coming into their first rate adjustment. Technically, the bottom may not be felt until the last 3/1 subprime loan hits it's first rate adjustment. I think to stop the bleeding on that front, and prevent further defaults/foreclosures, congress is going to have to put in stops to those arms from adjusting and take the hit on lost interest income, if possible. Or at least put a cap on that initial rate adjustment. But, I don't know how many of those subprimes and alt-a mortgages are out there still. But since the government is essentially taking "ownership" of the companies that hold the most portfolios of them, they can esentially rewrite the rules to them, if they want. Hell, we've already added how many hundreds of billions of dollars to the national score board? They could write a loan modification agreement to those loans that read something like "interest rates used for example purposes only": "your initial interest rate will convert to a fixed 30-year amortizing structure. At which point, upon any future sale of the home, up to 70% of the sale proceeds above the then outstanding loan balance will be assigned to the lender for compensation, but not to exceed the difference in the interest income of your mortgage interest rate to a fair market rate of 6.5% at the like time of sale to the amortization schedule of the loan." Basically, if you take two identical standard 30 year mortgages of $200,000, and run one at 4.0% and the other at 6.5%. The monthly payment difference is $309 ($955 & $1,264). Now, say they sell the house in 7 years, the difference between the interest income of the two loans is $34,695. Now, if you assume that $200,000 loan represents 100% of the purchase price of the home, and assign a conservative 3% annual growth rate to it, in 7 years it's worth $245,975 bucks. That's $45,975 bucks of appreciated value to cover the $34,695 difference between the two loans. ASSUMING no amorization of the loan, which we're not. In 7 years, the 4.0% loan balance is $172,119. The 6.5% loan balance is $180,547. Or an ADDITIONAL $27,881 or $19,453 of equity "assuming the $245,975 value of the home". What does this accomplish? For one, it stops the increasing payments to the borrower "maybe $250-$300 for those on interest only for switching to amortizing", which is causing some of the foreclosures. It also acts as an incentive for the borrower to stay in the home "where else are they going to get such a sweet deal on a place to live?" This will effectively drop the volume of foreclosed homes on the market. It will also act as an incentive for the borrower to not only to stay in the home, but to remain there too, but is sort of a double edged sword. The longer the loan stays active, the greater the difference between the interest incomes realized between the two loans. For example, in 15 years the difference is $57,788. However, the absolute number on the house at 3% a year still exceeds it by an even larger number, with a value of $311,595. Basically, keep the payment at the level it's at, just amortize it on a 30 year run, and tack on the difference in interest incomes upon the point of sale. If anything, at least the lender isn't dealing with the expenses of trying to market a foreclosed house, and at worse case they will get paid off at the time of sale, and recoup some interest profit in the 70% of net proceeds agreement. This obviously doesn't address those borrowers who lied on their applications and couldn't afford the house to begin with, or over extended themselves on other things after the home purchase. But, it does address the adjustible rate loans out there that are set to skyrocket in payments.

Hahaha!!! Sorry big guy, you're right! Looking at your post this morning on my 19' wide screen monitor, and having my glasses on, I see you said leanings, not learnings. At home, on my 17 inch monitor w/o my glasses, it looked like learnings. Sorry man, I missed it. Well, I think the three of us could "yeah, but" for days re: how we got here. I think all three of us have a very good handle on what we're doing, and obviously have very good reasonings and thinkings for it. I respect it, and do enjoy the debating. I think the truth and real answer is somewhere in the blended thinkings. But, I think before we burn ourselves out over it, we switch to what we think will need to be done to fix it. RX, I think any job right now that pays, is good! And if you enjoy it, all the better! I know SWO enjoys his job, and is quite good at it. I love mine, even though it usually wears me down to a dribbling drooling tub of goo by Friday. I love going on site visits and see the actual product, getting a little mud on my shoes and wearing the hard hat. Commercial real estate is for me. Plus, the pay ain't to shabby either, but to me, that's just a perk. 3 of the biggest 5 investment houses, are now toast. Internal commentary suggests AIG will pull the plug this week. Concerns that BofA is biting off more than they can chew. Wachovia, SunTrust, Guarantee Bank, and of course WaMu have all exited the market for apartment construction loans "usually a safe bet". Public Capital is no where to be seen, as Wall Street has imploded. Private Capital placement is struggling, with several smaller insurance companies and credit unions running out of money. In my landscape, the only players left appear to be Met Life, New York Life, Prudential, and Pacific Life. Of those players, all but one aren't going north of $50m committments. Principal is hidding in the shadows, hoping to avoid the spotlight. But I know they're hurting now, and laying off people in the quietest manner they can. Legg Mason is so heavily loaded down with these investment products called structured investment vehicles "SIV" that were used for residential lending, they too are struggling and their public filings suggest potential trouble as well. Developers are laying off too, even the most prominent players with huge amounts of reserves to ride this out for a few years "if need be". Countrywide, gone. 20th Century, gone. And a lot of other major players, all gone. And of course Fannie and Freddie now under government control. I'd have to say, we're all witnessing history unfold right infront of us. This is the perfect storm, and it just keeps raging. This is just amazingly bad, and sad. But I have confidence, that lessons learned from this will create a new market in the distant future that will be fresh, new, and create opportunities for many many folks far beyond what we've seen over the past few years. I would almost have to say; this is the changing of the guard. I think the kick-off punt for any recovery is squarely on oil. I think we've got to do whatever it takes to get those prices down, so folks aren't so strapped to their local BP station. We're a nation that is being forced to stand still, and we're not known for being good at that. We like to move, run, go go go. I think with oil continuing is decline back to a more normal and reasonable level "currently at about $90 today and falling", folks will start to breath again. Granted, we've got to cycle through this Ike disruption at the moment. I say this, because the most direct impact felt by every American, is at the pump. They see it several times a day when passing a gas station with "$4.09" blinking on the sign. They see it, and immediately rethink where they're going at that moment. What they're going to buy at Home Depot and is it really worth it. Gas plays on the mental balance more then anything, if you ask me. All this stuff going on is horrible. But if gas were $2.09 instead of $4.09, I think some of the paralysis gripping the nation would ease up. I would love to see how much money these failing investment shops had tied into oil during the last options cycle. If my thinking was correct back in June, of investment banks manipulating the oil markets to try and recover their losses from the housing markets, then it would make sense why they're failing so quickly now. My gut keeps saying they were heavily betting on that $200 a barrell prediction. Right now, we're just pinned. When will that ease up? I don't know. I'd be very interested to see what you guys think as well to when we'll see the signs of recovery starting to show up. But I honestly do think getting through the election is key. Whether it's an Obama platform, or McCain, at least we'll know what we're working with. I've been suggestion for sometime now that the closer we get to the election day, the worse it's going to get. I honestly hope we're finally at the bottom, with 6 weeks to go before election day.

I agree, but in the argument of the chicken and the egg, if a former college grad who's 6 months into his first job at Countrywide can run debt/income ratios, read a basic tax return, and see what he/she is approving for a loan really doesn't work, then wouldn't you think the policy makers at that institution could too? It's kind of like driving a car that can go 160 mph. Just because the speedlimit has been eliminated, doesn't mean you've got the same percentage of surviability in a crash, as someone going 65 mph. I'm not accusing "everyone" of being punch-drunk. But you've got to admit man, seriously, especially in your line of work, how many new home buyers have you seen that before the ink dried on the documents was picking up a new car too? Granted, not that it's all wrong, but I know you've had to of met at least one or two that had you scratching your head after it was all done and said for. Eitherway, we've got a mess, and I hope regulations return to a certain degree. I hear you about 9/11. I'm not trying to revert back to it as an excuse "I'm no Rudy". But, you must admit, this country has been operating under it's shadow ever since. I agree with you Steve, we need to move beyond it. And I am more than ready to do so. I think it's no secret of my political party pick. But, I am sooo ready for a new president, I don't care who it is, just no more Bush.

There is no patriotic "learnings" about it. I'm not a student of it, I'm not new to it, I'm not on the learning curve, i'm in the briarpatch of what's going on. I've had countless mornings for the past 12+ months, when I get to my office, of voicemails from fellow participants in the $50m+ commercial investment world saying "we're out of money, got a deal in the hopper, can you help". And in 5 weeks, I'm going to watch my 21 year old brother in law head off to Afghanistan for his 1st tour of duty. He signed up for MP duty via the National Guard, and will be in tank duty full time, already been stop-lossed. Furthermore, I being one of two of the strongest members of his family "in-law" am proping up his fiance' to get through Cambell. When it comes to my theories of Bush, and the past 7 years, there is no "learnings" for me. I know it, I've come up the ladder in it, and because I've been paying attention, and didn't make stupid mistakes like leveraging myself to death on funky i/o "interest only" hybrid loans, will keep going up, along with my 820 credit score. I understand people's negativety towards Bush. I understand it, and I'm not at all against it. Yes, he screwed the pooch. Yes, he made mistakes. Yes, he has an arrogance about him that irritates many, if not most. But, in my honest opinion, to blame him squarely for where we are today, well, is a scape-goat for not taking responsiblity for our own mistakes. As someone who's financed numerous mom'n'pop startups over the years, provided corporate lines of credit, business fleets of vehicles, working capital loans, and now several of those skyline buildings in Boston, Baltimore, DC, and Raleigh, I'm always amazed by the utter arrogance of the borrower who receives the loan check. Yet, never suprised when it fails to blame others for the loan check. We're in this economic mess not because Bush made us. We're in this mess because bank presidents, investment bankers, stock traders, credit rating shops, mortgage brokers, and average Joe American, got punch-drunk-greedy. We're in it because Bank President X allowed his institution to lend money on a 3/1, interest only, adjustable, loan, to those with 600 credit scores on stated income. We're in this because rating agencies were "for hire" and gave AAA ratings of security pools full of subprime loans, because Countrywide paid for it. We're in this, because regulators failed, period. To say we're in this because Bush alone caused it, just doesn't sit with me, at all. What else was a President to do after such an event as 9/11? Let the paralysis of shock of 9/11 set in? That would of crippled us across all levels. Bush had a blood-thirsty nation in shock. And, on top of that, was already in the grips of a recession created by the overly-bogus-bullsh*t values of the dot.com bubble that happened under Clinton's watch. Bush, and his administration, in my opinion, had no other option but to make money cheap, so folks in a "consumer driven" society could ease the shock of being attacked, divert their lust for revenge, with a new car, new DVD player, etc. And, it worked, as evidenced by every single skyline of every single American city in this country, with their new towers, newly renovated "slums", new schools, etc. BUT, the train got going so damn fast, it derailed. And, if he is to be blamed for anything, it's for not listening to the one voice of concern in a room of hundreds of greedy chumps that said "we're not on track". Greenspan is to blame for letting rates sit to low for too long. And, quite frankly, Joe American is to blame as well. Not for taking a 3/1 interest only loan on a $400k house "when he makes $45k a year", but for being so arrogant after the loan closed that he would earn enough money in three years when the rate changed to a normal schedule that he didn't have to worry about. Joe American is also to blame for thinking his $700 mortgage payment gave him enough wiggle room to trade that Chevy for a new Lexus. That 12 foot bass-boat for a new 22 foot Boston Whaler. That Ole' reliable Honda Shadow 500 for a Harley Ultra-Glide. No, the real blame, is on US. We got caught up in it, didn't want to think about tomorrow, and have been living beyond our means for too long. You get an audience like that, and you can bet your soul the players on the stage will take advantage of it, like the CEO's of all the failed banks, investment houses, and all others who paid too much attention to their new Mercedes Benz, instead of the logics of Finance 101 taught at their local community colleges. My dad's former company spent 15 years giving it's policy holders a 73% ROE (return on equity) with his "stick to the fundamentals" approach to investments. He fought off those in the parent company that wanted to "leverage" that kind of return by blending it with Wall Street. The day after he retired, the parent company finally gained access to his shop. 18 months later, it's closed as a complete failure "Aug. 15th, 2008". Greed got it, and arrogance killed it. "Principal" of the matter...arrogance is the kiss of death, as it will blind you to the things nipping in the shadows to kill you. Bush isn't innocent by any means, but "he alone" isn't to blame. When you can get a mortgage faster than a pizza, you know what's going to hit the fan...just a matter of time. PS: On a brighter note: Anyone see the cost of oil today? UNDER $95! Even with all that's going on, hurricanes spinning around in the gulf, 12 destroyed platforms, Russia lurking with their crackhead buddy in Venezuela...it STILL keeps falling! We clean up Wall Street, get this election behind us....I smell dollar rally coming........

Holy Smokes! I just saw the news about Lehman Brothers "which was anticipated to happen", but not AIG and Merril Lynch! WOW. Well, I could be wrong, but a few posts back I mentioned that we'll see who's been playing in the oil sector, as prices continue to fall on the options side. I think we've seen three so far this week. Granted, they were in trouble to begin with, thanks to their heavy balance sheets of subprime portfolios. But the continuing decline of oil, in such a rapid fashion, certainly is hurting them too. I can't imagine what hundrends of millions of dollars of oil options bought when it was at $147, looks like today as it heads south of $95. All of this has taken place in just 90-120 days. I certainly respect your points SWO, and they're very good ones. I certainly couldn't base any sort of real argument against them. Granted, today's economic platform is just in complete ruins, and Bush's policy on domestic economic issues "looked" good on paper, but at the end of the day, is turning out to be one massively expensive cluster-bumpkin. I also continue to think markets in general are nervous for this election. So much at stake, and eitherway you go, a different leader to take it over, of which neither platform has anything in common. I do think though we're discounting the post-war benefits that seem to be getting closer and closer to reality. I'm so very happy to see the Iraqi people asking us to leave, as we've pretty much done what we've been there to do. I don't know amigo, we'll just have to wait and see. But I think a real wave of American pride will wash over this country when those soldiers start coming home. We've got to wrap up Osama though, it's been too long now.

First of all: My apologies to SEGMN. I barked at you "if you saw it over night or not" unjustly, and I was wrong to do so. I have edited my last post and removed the barking. Second of all: This is what happens to me when my wife and son go to the beach for a week with Grandma', and leave Dad at home, all by his lonesome self...with nothing to do...certainly not watch a Bruce Springsteen concert on his 42in' 1080i Plasma (instead of baby einstein), with 800 watts of pure American whoop-!Removed! power pumping through a 12 inch Pioneer sub "I like to call Rambo", with the volume set at "11" instead of "shhh, don't wake the baby". Nope, not me, no sir. And I certainly would not be the type to sit in his livingroom, and drink a bunch of beer while listening to Bruce Springsteen. Nope, not me, no sir. Nor would I be singing at the top of my lungs (a few many brews down the road) to "Born in the USA" as one of his final songs of the 3 hour concert, for the neighbors to all hear. Nope, not me, no sir. And, of course, I, of all people, would never, never ever never, after such an event, ever be one to come on here and bark my pro-american *BLEEP*n'vinager. Man...is it going to be a long Monday.

Until people are risking their lives on mattresses to get to Russia "like they do from Cuba to Miami daily", this country will ALWAYS be on the + of any checks and balances. Plus, let us not forget who's the big boy who comes to the defense of those not capable of defending themselves. And, who's flag is on the tailfin of the 1st relief plane into a devastated area with supplies. Plus, who wrote the book, who knocked down the Berlin wall, who won the Cold War, who is the model of the rest of the World's youth. Fact is, we have "capital" beyond our own understanding, and one day our blood will come paid in full. We've been on a mission for the past 8 years. World players know this, and know it costs far more then the 250m people here can pay. They knew that before the 1st B52 circled Kabul. We're on a free check for ponning up the balls to get at what's been eating at the EU for decades. May I suggest one quote from Putin himself, 7 years ago on 10/2/01...."I fear the sleeping giant has been awoken." It no longer matters who wins the election...our actions of the past 7 years will dominate any and all policies of any sitting president for the next decade. We've been punched, bruised, accused, blaimed, and used. But...we ain't been hung-out-to-dry. No sir. We're about to enter a period of INCREADIBLE growth! You watch....we're about to be "the" party guest.