nc211 Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 Well, who hasn't noticed the inching back up of the prices at the pump? Outside of the "driving" season coming upon us now, there is an interesting little backstory going on that ties back to last summer, and from what I'm reading, is set to meltdown in September of this year. Many of the smaller oil producers and gas refineries around the world sold delivery contracts last summer, when oil was in the $140 range, for delivery as late as September of this year. So, even though oil has been low in the eyes of the public perception, behind the scenes several producers are still delivering at last summer's prices. This is also why there are still so many smaller-time oil and gas companies still in business today. BUT, that is set to change in September, when these hedging contracts expire. The big oil companies (Exxon, Shell, Chevron, etc) are sitting on the side lines with billions upon billions of dollars, just sitting idle, waiting for those contracts to expire. And when they do, you can bet they're going to swoop in and buy up these small oil producing companies at a feverish pitch. They can't do it now, because when one of these small producers are appraised to determine what they're worth to a buyer (I'm talking about buying the business in general), the appraised value of these smaller operations are based upon those $140 barrell prices. Basically, it's like saying (I'll sell you my company, for $140 a barrel), which makes no sense when oil is in the $50-$60 range. But once those last remaining $140 contracts expire in September, it's strongly suggested that many of these smaller companies won't beable to stay in business, and be forced to sell, at fire bottom prices. What does this mean for us? Well, first off, $140 prices will finally be out of the system in general. Second, and this part is a little scary, an oil monopoly could be created with the big boys owning most of the market. However, the flip side to that is Obama. He has more pull with just a few, then with a thousand. What are we going to see? In my opinion, another plung in prices, big time! This might be the return to the $1 range that we've been hoping for. If you think about it, everything else in the economy is resetting back to 2000 levels. It's very strange, it's like we're just erasing the past 7 years and resetting to September 10th, 2001. So, that's my prediction folks. We'll hit $3 a gallon this summer, then tank tank tank tank in the fall! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcrome04 Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 I sure hope so.. Already up to $2.87 for prem at the expensive Chevron around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SW03ES Posted May 20, 2009 Share Posted May 20, 2009 Yeah it was $2.99 for high test in Bethesda the other day... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfish Posted May 20, 2009 Share Posted May 20, 2009 $2.39 here............ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcrome04 Posted May 20, 2009 Share Posted May 20, 2009 NC if you're wrong will you buy us all Gas for a year???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfish Posted May 20, 2009 Share Posted May 20, 2009 Decade ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcrome04 Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 Even better!!! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfish Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 Steaks too ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nc211 Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 I'd love to guys, but I won't have time, as I'll be too busy stealing rims off of cars that are sitting on the side of the highway because they ran out of gas, starting in Port Angeles, WA. I need a new muffler or two too! DC: My Cheetos friend, this one is for you! This is my son "who turns 1 this Sunday" learning to carry on the tradition a few weeks ago! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfish Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 I'd love to guys, but I won't have time, as I'll be too busy stealing rims off of cars that are sitting on the side of the highway because they ran out of gas, starting in Port Angeles, WA. I need a new muffler or two too!DC: My Cheetos friend, this one is for you! This is my son "who turns 1 this Sunday" learning to carry on the tradition a few weeks ago! Nc, I love you man !!! And the little man too !!! You have to love tradition Football, Cheetos and in 17+ years BEER Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcrome04 Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Port Angeles is a GREAT place to steal mufflers and wheels!!!!! :D :D hahahahaha Cute kid NC. Hard to believe it's already been a year! My little sister is 11. Going to be starting middle school next year. It's crazy. It seems like she was just a tiny little baby yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfish Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Gas prices, What a scam, Holidays are upon us and prices go up for no other reason than greed, I won't drive anywhere this holiday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcrome04 Posted May 26, 2009 Share Posted May 26, 2009 I'm going to stretch this tank as long as possible. hopefully the price goes down by the time I'm empty! haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfish Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 I have been driving as little as possible, To and from work only, If I need groceries or the like, I stop en route home from work. Gas here is $2.59 and rising. <_< Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcrome04 Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 Lucky. At a station here in town, premium is up to $3.14 a gal <_< Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nc211 Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 I tell ya' who's going to make a mint with this stuff, is used car dealers! They're giving pennies on the dollar for the floods of SUV's coming in on trade, which are more substiantial in terms of materials and build, and charging top shelf prices for the cheaper built economy cars! They flush out the cheaper cars at max profit margins, sit tight with the SUV's and wait for oil to tank, and then turn around and jack up the prices for the SUV's when people realize they can't fit the family in the econoboxes and want their SUV back, when gas is about $1.70 a gallon. Give pennies for the slightly used econo-cars on trade, and hit high profit margins on the SUV's... Almost a year to the day! RX, good thing your nor I hopped on that wagon last summer to get rid of your truck or my suv! http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dw...n2.50fdeae.html Dealers facing tight supply of SUVs, trucks 12:00 AM CDT on Wednesday, June 17, 2009 By TERRY BOX / The Dallas Morning News tbox@dallasnews.com If you've got your eye on a new SUV, don't blink. BEN TORRES/Special Contributor An area of the lot at Sam Pack's Five Star Ford in Carrollton held more than 50 Expeditions and 50 Explorers about this time last year. Now there are four Expeditions and less than 10 Explorers on the lot. It might be gone. Even with the auto industry mired in depression – sales are down nationally 36.5 percent – big vehicles such as the Ford Expedition and Chevy Tahoe are in tight supply because of drastic production cuts that automakers imposed last year as sales began to plummet. Now, a year after $4-a-gallon gas nearly killed SUVs, some dealers in this market are selling them for window-sticker prices. Moreover, most late-model used pickups and SUVs have regained all of the thousands of dollars in trade-in value they lost last summer, dealers say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nc211 Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 In time, the truth will always come out..... On the front page of today's Wall Street Journal, the lead story reads....... TRADERS BLAMED FOR OIL SPIKE http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124874574251485689.html BY IANTHE JEANNE DUGAN AND ALISTAIR MACDONALD The Commodity Futures Trading Commission plans to issue a report next month suggesting speculators played a significant role in driving wild swings in oil prices -- a reversal of an earlier CFTC position that augurs intensifying scrutiny on investors. In a contentious report last year, the main U.S. futures-market regulator pinned oil-price swings primarily on supply and demand. But that analysis was based on "deeply flawed data," Bart Chilton, one of four CFTC commissioners, said in an interview Monday. The CFTC's new review, due to be released in August, adds fuel to a growing debate over financial investors who bet ... ....and to combat it, comes the following headline.... GENSLER PUSHES FOR TRADING CURBS http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124878844608286821.html By SARAH N. LYNCH WASHINGTON -- The chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Tuesday he believes the agency must "seriously consider" setting "strict" new limits on traders who place bets on energy contracts.... ...and the proof in the pudding...or "who smelt it, dealt it".. TRADERS BALK AT PLANS TO LIMIT NATURAL-GAS TRADES http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1248745633...icle-outset-box By CAROLYN CUI While regulators debate how to curb excessive speculation in commodities markets, exchanges are moving to impose limits on natural-gas trading, sparking outrage among traders. In the face of pending restrictions, natural-gas prices have swung wildly and trading volume has declined, highlighting the dilemma facing regulators: how to heighten oversight without introducing adverse consequences. Ohhhh....can ya' smell it! Ahh, the sweet smell of cheap gas lingering over the horizon... bring on the $20/barrell prices baby, bring it on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfish Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 $20.00 a barrel would be sweet, Heck, Gas is $2.47 :chairshot: :cries: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nc211 Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 $20.00 a barrel would be sweet, Heck, Gas is $2.47 :chairshot::cries: Would it though! Man, I'd love to see the "1" before the "." on prices! I honestly think the stage is pretty much set for the collapse later this year, which in my opinion, is exactly the thing needed to get things rolling again in the economy. We saw how hurtful it was to everything last year when it went up - prices for food, quantities of food being reduced, prices for travel, the impact to the hotel sector "which is really getting tough right now to sustain for much longer", prices for anything and everything that has to be transported to anywhere...went up up up. Let that expense ease off a bit, give those sectors a few months to recoup those losses by keeping the prices where they are now (increasing the profit margins greatly), then we'll see some healthy balance sheets again. At the end of the day, whether we like it or not, this country's economic backbone IS directly tied to oil. We're at about $2.50 a gallon, have been for a few months, and we're starting to see some settling of the economy. Not a lot of growth, but a reduction in the decline for sure. Edge that puppy down a little more, and I think we'll see some much needed breathing room. My fingers are crossed! Last winter's dumping from $147 to $30 was nothing more than panic associated with the "election effect". We ain't gotta' worry 'bout that effect for a while, so now the price decline should have more of a bite to stay down for a good while! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfish Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 If the price of gold would drop............................. Stop selling and start buying ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nc211 Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Alright fellas, we're heading into September...the last month of the $150/barrell future contracts from last year should start to burn off.... we should start to see if some of these predictions are right soon.... I'm beginning to wonder if the sense of panic from Congress to get these massive bills pushed through in record time aren't a signal that they know something huge in the economy is about to shift.. could this be it? Fingers are crossed.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LexLuthor400 Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Alright fellas, we're heading into September...the last month of the $150/barrell future contracts from last year should start to burn off.... we should start to see if some of these predictions are right soon.... I'm beginning to wonder if the sense of panic from Congress to get these massive bills pushed through in record time aren't a signal that they know something huge in the economy is about to shift.. could this be it? Fingers are crossed.... I hope so! But I have a feeling that the "Obama honeymoon" is quickly fading and that is the reason they are trying to push these through while they still can, is because they don't have his full term to do this. They only have until next years elections, and if they don't retain the majority in the house and senate, everything Obama has claimed he is going to do, will just come to a complete stop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nc211 Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Good point LexLuthor, I hadn't thought of that before! ;) Below is a welcoming snippet from Bloomberg today, talking about how out of whack the price differences are between natural gas and oil. They say gas is so cheap because of new production fields coming on line now. They also say the gap is sure to narrow, but don't know which one will move (gas up, oil down). But my guess, is since more gas is being produced (hence supply and demand), then oil will be the likely component to move... Record Oil-Gas Price Ratio May Be Set to Narrow: Chart of Day By David Wilson Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil has become so expensive compared with natural gas that the record price ratio between them probably won’t last, analysts say. The CHART OF THE DAY shows the prices of these commodities since 1990, when natural-gas futures started trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, in the top panel. The ratio between them, which closed at a record 26.4-to-1 last week, appears in the bottom panel. The ratio has more than tripled this year amid a 67 percent increase in crude prices, bolstered by speculation that Chinese demand will climb. Gas prices have fallen 48 percent on reduced demand from industrial companies and the start of production at new U.S. fields. “History clearly suggests that the price gap will eventually narrow, through some combination of oil prices falling and natural-gas prices rising,” Donald Marron, a former member of the Council of Economic Advisers, wrote in an Aug. 21 posting on his blog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfish Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 $2.39 here.............. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfish Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 $2.32.............. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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