2016 Obama's America

[nc211]

http://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/EW5IdwltaAc?rel=0

Don't mean to scare anyone, and I don't see or hear anything in this link beyond the numbers, no political garbage beyond the economics presented (really don't see the purpose of the clip about NY). But that being said, this basically outlines my own personal opinion on what needs to take top priority of our focus over the next leadership cycle of the nation. The trajectory of the debt! Granted, I don't think debt is bad, but in a sustainable amount. It's one thing to carry debt when you offer production of value, like manufacturing and exporting with fair trade balance (and decent product offerings). But that's hard to do when you're pinned against an unfair trade tarrif with places China. It's hard to do when real unemployment numbers are double digits. In my opinion, the fact of the matter is simple - regulation has become too expensive for the private sector to offer consumer confidence levels to rise to a point that allows capitalism to flourish for the masses. I say deregulate, POUND on trade balances, get the revenues up, then raise taxes. Look, the guy in the video is right, we're in for a painful period of humility here. We've been "keeping up appearances" with the credit card for too long. We have a big boy decision to make now. It's not a decision based upon religion, or socioeconomics, or personal beliefs and visions of society. It's a decision that is based upon one basic question - do we take control and make the painful cuts, which will allow us to steer our own destiny? Or do we wait a little while longer for the ballooning interest payments on our debt to other nations take control and force those same painful cuts, while losing control of our own destiny. Yes, we are the "dollar", and not the Euro like in Greece/Italy/Spain/France. That is a real benefit to us. But we shouldn't sleep well at night because of this, not when an even stronger currency is melting down as well (the pound), even with some of the highest tax rates in the world to support it. That's not the path we're on, that's the decision point we're already at! Again, just my own opinion here folks, and it's no better or worse than anyone else's, but if we don't get the government out of these board rooms, and allow the private sector to operate more freely within the context of our unique model of economic success that has made this country (and to a smaller extent, the world) what it is, then we are essentially abandoning our own capacity for what we're capable of,

what we've proven time and time again to become on the world stage - the best providers of all that is good and aspiring.

Again, I am reminded of Regean's famous quote - "Government is not the solution to your problems. Government is the problem." I think that chart of national debt pretty much sums up that point.

We have two outcomes facing us now: stay the course and wait for hyper inflation and devaluation of our currency to right the ship, a model that has no set end period and is nearly impossible to reverse. Or raise taxes. One of these IS going to happen. But one happens at the hands of the creator and owner. The other happens as a mechanism of the creditor. If you ask me, I say do whatever it takes to produce more output and raise taxes on the increased revenue stream, rather than keep the status quo and wait for milk to cost $15 a gallon...

[SW03ES]

This is what you're missing though...thats not going to happen under a Romney administration either...in fact many of the policies he's promoting will make the economic issue worse by CUTTING taxes on top wage earners. He's not going to be able to make any serious cuts to the big ticket items that really cost us money, defense, entitlements. He cuts defense, the people who put him in office run him out. He cuts entitlements...we'll have mobs on our hands.

What the fellow in the video fails to mention however is that if you look at the projected future on the budget table, the deficit is shrinking. If you look at the projections for 2014...the deficit is more than cut in half. Why is that? Well...one big reason is the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, since the budget projections take into account law as on the books when they are created. If you let those elapse for people in higher tax brackets, and you plugged loopholes for higher wage earners...you'd see a big impact on that deficit.

Run the numbers in 2014 and see if congress "can't balance the budget if they shut down the Government"

Now, figure it out if Romney comes in...extends the Bush tax cuts for everybody, LOWERS taxes for higher wage earners in the name of "small business", reduces corporate taxes and delivers nothing but token cuts to entitlements because he wants to get re-elected.

THEN we're f@cked! See my point? Even if you reduced unemployment to zero...do you think the additional revenue from additional taxpayers makes up that difference?

Do a little reading on here: http://www.cbpp.org/...fa=view&id=3658

Look at their analysis of the kinds of cuts needed to discretionary programs to achieve his promises when including the tax cuts he wants to make, and tell me if people are going to stand by when they watch 70% cuts to Medicare. He doesn't have the spine.

So...figure out what the impact would be if he passed the tax cuts...and doesn't pass the spending cuts.

[nc211]

All good points, SW, seriously. I really can't argue against those statements with actual counter facts. All I can offer is what my gut is telling me, which is to de-regulate for a while and let the horses run again, but with a bit more caution than what was allowed in 05-07, which I think would be the case given the past 5 years in general. Nobody wants to make those mistakes again, or even be remotely connected to the blame for them again. The only leg I've really got to stand on throughout this decision process is the regulation environment. Personally, I'm not suffering from it. My employer just yesterday announced a massive acquisition in NJ that will dillute what I do for the outfit down to a point to take some of the heat off of it from the Fed. But, that still doesn't ease the multiple layers of this/that/the other in terms of red tape to function in the global movement of capital, that is just getting worse. It almost feels as if what I know to do, can't be trusted anymore because someone who was in this sector 5 years ago made a mistake. A mistake made on a process that really has no bearing or direct connection to what I do. I think there are many in the business community that feel the same way. I'd be dealing with this if I were still in Chicago too with my old outfit, a completely different operating platform for what I do for a living. It's like when S&P came to my former employer 3 years ago and said they were going to downgrade their credit rating. When asked why, S&P responded with "your portfolio includes a lot of resort properties and golf properties, they're the riskiest type". When my employer pointed out the analysis of that slice of portfolio and how incrediably strong it was, with no issues ever in the past and the very unlikely chance of it ever having any issue in the future, S&P said "so, doesn't mean you won't in the future, therefore we're going to make it more difficult and expensive for you to operate in general now." That type of approach has been occuring for the past 3 years now too from the Fed. Just because it "could", doesn't mean it will, but to react like it already has. Granted, assuming Obama wins a second term, I'm confident continued progress would be made to adjust to these new policies to create a "new normal", but it sure is tiring and expensive to operate in.

All I can really say is - the debt is coming home to roost soon, and we've got to be in a better position than we're in now to deal with it, and not just on a fiscal basis, but a confidence basis as well, which plays a very important role in our economy. I see what is being projected in front of us from the Democrats, and can't argue against those statements with anything other than it feels as though we're still in 2008, even though we're not. Still feels like at any minute the lights are going to out, even though we know they won't. It still smells of complete fear and nervousness, which is a ligitimate feeling, and one that I personally am exhausted from, and think the majority of voters beyond our little sweet slice of the pie are feeling as well. I can't recall a moment in history where this country was more exhausted than it is today. Maybe in the late 60's / early 70's from the Vietnam war? I think much of the support that Romney is getting, is coming from folks who are just so sick and tired of hearing doom and gloom in their daily lives that they're willing to try something new in general. It's been a tough 4 years. I don't think those who have suffered the most really want to hear a President give a speech about how he understands their situation, when the other guy is saying "I want to fix your situation". Whether he can or not, doesn't matter. It's the seeds of hope being planted that are working, and that's pretty easy to achieve when you've had 4 years of unemployment struggles taking front page of the majority of local newspapers.

But for me, I have to stick by my gut, which is saying to quiet down the government influence in the private sector of business, if for just a couple of years..

[SW03ES]

My point is...don't think Romney is going to do what you think he's going to do...he's not. If anything...I'm afraid he could make it worse with the tax cuts and such he's offering without the appropriate cuts...which I know he's not going to do because 1. He won't be re-elected, and one thing Romney has shown us is he will do or say anything to get elected, 2. Those cuts would really hurt the economy.

Romney comes in and knee jerks in 2012...cuts taxes...cuts spending the way he would have to to balance the budget...people will feel the huge drawback in their entitlements and do what they did in 2010 and vote the dems control of congress...then he won't be able to do anything until he looses in 2016. In the meantime, a lot of people will suffer.

Romney comes in and cuts taxes in 2012...doesn't cut spending, EXPLODES the deficit much how Bush did after the Clinton era, he may win re-election in 2016 if we have a boom similar to what we had in the mid 2000s...but ultimately thats going to be very detrimental to the economy.

What we are doing now IS working, its working slowly but its working. Budget projections show the deficit is shrinking without even seeing the results of closing additional tax loopholes and improving unemployment (which IS improving, albeit slowly). You have to remember, what we are recovering from is specifically:

1. Tax cuts we could not afford

2. Unchecked deregulation that led to a market crash

3. Extremely expensive foreign wars that went unpaid for

That really is how a budget surplus in 1999 turned into a 1.3T deficit in 2012. Basically Romney's plan is the same thing...more tax cuts we can't afford...removal of regulations...all thats missing is the war...and the day is young.

[nc211]

Man, this is getting too complicated to fix sober. Beer wench, hit me sweet cheeks!

Ok, you can have Obama, but I want a trade off. Pelosi and Reid have to go. That's the deal (and it won't get any better once I start drinkin'!)..

[lenore]

The only thing that is shrinking is the increases in desired spending. Government has never cut back, but only reduced what they project to spend the next year. That is why we are broke. Until Americans wake up and realize that a decrease to government is a reduction in growth of the budget we are doomed. 20 trillion coming up shortly if we continue. Funny how media, politicians, etc can reword the facts to achieve their goals, but in terms of real money we are overspent, and way out of budget. Your friends, children, grandchildren are doomed to loose their middle class level of living if this continues. The only classes will be everyone and the rich....No better than Mexico, Greece, etc.....Sad, we had one of the best standards of living in the world over all and we are loosing it rapidly.

For you math guys, if you are spending $2 and then project spending $3, and say you are cutting back by spending only $2.50...what is your result? All while telling the voters you cut back...Who in the heck is telling the real truth, probably only guys like Ron Paul...I know he is a crazy old guy, but he has a lot of common sense....(no I am not a Ron Paul guy)

[nc211]

We can all relax now. I have located Spaulding, and he is doing fine. He is currently in Tampa for the yacht club intervention convention....

Did anyone else catch the convention coverage tonight? Yikes! It looked like the collection area for the BMW 325es fan club! Seriously, even the 3 black people I saw as the camera panned the crowd, looked a little suspicious, in a Carlton Banks sort of way...

I have a strong desire for a PB&J all of the sudden, with the crusts cut off....

[nc211]

We can all relax now. I have located Spaulding, and he is doing fine. He is currently in Tampa for the yacht club intervention convention....

Did anyone else catch the convention coverage tonight? Yikes! It looked like the collection area for the BMW 325es fan club! Seriously, even the 3 black people I saw as the camera panned the crowd, looked a little suspicious, in a Carlton Banks sort of way...

I have a strong desire for a PB&J all of the sudden, with the crusts cut off....

[SW03ES]

The only thing that is shrinking is the increases in desired spending. Government has never cut back, but only reduced what they project to spend the next year. That is why we are broke. Until Americans wake up and realize that a decrease to government is a reduction in growth of the budget we are doomed. 20 trillion coming up shortly if we continue. Funny how media, politicians, etc can reword the facts to achieve their goals, but in terms of real money we are overspent, and way out of budget. Your friends, children, grandchildren are doomed to loose their middle class level of living if this continues. The only classes will be everyone and the rich....No better than Mexico, Greece, etc.....Sad, we had one of the best standards of living in the world over all and we are loosing it rapidly.

Lenore...stop spewing GOP rhetoric...be impartial...and think for yourself here for a second. Look at the chart the guy uses in the video, here it is:

http://www.whitehous...sets/tables.pdf

Really try and read and understand what I'm saying.

Go to page 3. You will see that we had an 8.7% deficit in 2011, an 8.5% deficit in 2012. In 2013, the deficit shrinks to 5.5%, in 2014...3.9%.2018...2.7%. If you look at the top of the page you will see that spending is not decreasing...revenues are increasing. Why the distinct difference after this year? Rollout of the Affordable Care Act which reduces the deficit per the CBO, and expiration of the Bush tax cuts.

If you go to the next 2 pages you will see laid out the effects of Deficit reduction. The expiration of high income tax cuts makes up the largest percentage of projected deficit reduction.

Your assertion that this difference is because the Government is simply saying their spending will grow less is a fallacy. If you look at the chart you will see, Government spending for security and non security expenditures actually decreases significantly from 2012-2015.

Of course they spend more...we all spend more year over year. If you look at what you spent in 1995...today you spend more. A fully loaded ES was $39k in 2003...it was $44k in 2010...in 2013 its $47k. Things get more expensive over time.

For you math guys, if you are spending $2 and then project spending $3, and say you are cutting back by spending only $2.50...what is your result? All while telling the voters you cut back...Who in the heck is telling the real truth, probably only guys like Ron Paul...I know he is a crazy old guy, but he has a lot of common sense....(no I am not a Ron Paul guy)

You are attempting to oversimplify something that is truly very complex.

Just look at the data and tell me, if Romney doesn't allow the tax cuts to expire...and in fact he cuts taxes further...understanding thats where the bulk of deficit reduction comes from...what will that do to the projected deficits? Will they go down from what is shown in this projection? No...they'll go up. This isn't about party vs party...this is about common sense. I'm a businessman...what Romney is selling doesn't make sense. Cutting taxes will explode the deficit, getting a bunch of lowly paid workers back to work paying taxes isn't going to make up for the huge revenue losses on huge incomes of the upper class. He says he's going to make cuts to compensate, going to balance the budget while INCREASING defense spending and in fact...creating a FLOOR, a MINIMUM % of GDP the Gov't must spend on defense...show me how...look at these numbers and tell me how he's going to balance the budget without taking from your Social Security and Medicare benefits with his plan. Its impossible.

On top of that experience tells me none of those significant cuts are ever going to happen, but the tax cuts will because people are too stupid to realize the danger.Tax cuts and no big cuts equal...EXPLODING DEFICITS.

Ron Paul thinks Romney's budget is reckless and a fantasy. Why do you think he refused to release his delegates? Good for him.

You want the election to be about the economy...well there it is.

[lenore]

I have been around government for over 40 years as an adult, I have seen how they do budgets. When the end of the year came up we spent like drunken sailers on garbage to make sure we spent everything so that we could get our increase in budget the next year. That mentality has never changed. When ever politicians talk budget it has always been about expansion of budget, and then when it is reduced (the expansion) they cry that the budget was cut. Those figures you have are bogus...I can guarantee it. These offices dont want you to know the real truth. Funny in private companies and businesses you have a fixed income, and can only spend what you have, that has never been the case with government. Oh yea they go through the motions, but it is crap. The majority of Politicians do not have a clue on how to figure the budget, it is so corrupted with bad numbers that it is like a moving target. Projecting a decrease in deficit is based on the same mentality. When someone gives the true numbers and tries to move toward really balancing the budget, we all wont be here. But somebody better start making some drastic moves soon.

[LEXIRX330]

All I know is what the man said his self...if in 4 years he couldn't cut the deficit than he didn't deserve a 2nd term. Everything Obama has done has expanded government with no plans on slowing down. More people on government assistance and they are advertising it now too. He is undoing what was a great thing that Bill Clinton did...get people off of welfare. I am sorry every projection that his cronies put out when the facts get released end up costing more. There has to be some balance...and I'm with NC get rid of those nuts Pelosi and Reid...congress can't get anything passed because of the senate, Reid has said he isn't going to allow anything the Republican controlled congress passes? What is that? They all need to get pay cuts, term limits, no special health plans or benefits. Obama's healthcare law has been so confusing...no one still knows exactly how it will work and what the effects will be...but one thing is for sure it hasn't at all helped address the cost of health insurance...which was another thing he promised.

I would take Romney any day over Obama to run my business, manage my business, or run our country. I have seen what Obama has done, I don't care what people think that Romney will do I am ready to give someone else a chance.

[lenore]

I watched CNN, MSNBC, And Fox last night...CNN and Fox gave a fair analysis of the speeches last night, MSNBC could only talk about how mean Christie looked. Then when it came to Ann Romney speech they said it was contrilled to make the Romneys look like everyday folks. Well they are rich, but they have the same issues that we all have. The far left can never attack or come up with solutions that are really pending this nation. They would rather nitpick anything else but the problem. That is what is so infuriating, They want to pick the Flysh$it out of the pepper barrel instead of listen to the message. If not that jump on these other issues which mean nothing to most Americans...We want a budget and Jobs. Solving these problems is the real issue, and which party is going to do it better and faster.

[lenore]

Man, this is getting too complicated to fix sober. Beer wench, hit me sweet cheeks!

Ok, you can have Obama, but I want a trade off. Pelosi and Reid have to go. That's the deal (and it won't get any better once I start drinkin'!)..

Beer wont do it, try Vodka and juice on the rocks...really helps everything.

[nc211]

Man, this is getting too complicated to fix sober. Beer wench, hit me sweet cheeks!

Ok, you can have Obama, but I want a trade off. Pelosi and Reid have to go. That's the deal (and it won't get any better once I start drinkin'!)..

Beer wont do it, try Vodka and juice on the rocks...really helps everything.

Oh noooo. One thing I've learned about me, is to stay away from the hard stuff. I don't even drink beyond the ultra-light beer anymore, because I know that I'll get too tired before I get too "couragous" to do anything stupid. Last time I stepped away from that rule of thumb, I voted for Clinton and this happened (1995 - I took the picture)... Moral of the story - being a liberal democrat is too much fun for me to handle! I literally have to be a conservative republican to stay alive! I've probably amassed enough evidence to actually warrant a "doctor's note" to this effect... :D I mean, look at my avatar for cryin' out loud! You want ME to join the liberal movement? Ha!

[nc211]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wells-fargo-fires-iowa-worker-for-minor-1963-crime.html

Granted, not quiet what I'm talking about with all of these new regulations, but you get the point...

[SW03ES]

I have been around government for over 40 years as an adult, I have seen how they do budgets.

So, you have no response to any of the very real, rational financial questions.

Those figures you have are bogus...I can guarantee it.

So...if you can't make the numbers look the way you wanted them to...they are bogus? Somehow...they weren't bogus when the YouTube guy in the video you posted used them...but they are bogus now. SAME budget data from the same source, he shows the source in his video. This IS the budget of the United States. You're saying its fraudulent?

Where is your proof of that? Surely, the republicans would be all over the White House for submitting a fraudulent budget!

You really are a joke Just admit you don't understand what we're talking about.

All I know is what the man said his self...if in 4 years he couldn't cut the deficit than he didn't deserve a 2nd term.

But look at the numbers and figures I posted...and tell me how what Romney is proposing is going to be better than what Obama has proposed when it comes to deficit reduction. Seriously...I'd really like to know. You've said yourself' date=' what is important is getting this economy moving and reducing these deficits...I've shown its a very real possibility Romney's plan may do the opposite. Refute that!

He is undoing what was a great thing that Bill Clinton did...get people off of welfare.

Check the facts on that, Obama has done nothing to roll back any Welfare legislation. Remember though...we're not talking about that, we're talking about the deficit.

Please show me how my analysis of the budget data above is faulty. Show me how in light of this data Romney's financial plan makes any sense.

[LEXIRX330]

SW...there are more people on government assistance than ever, his administration is stripping the work requirement for welfare...what Bill Clinton did to get more people off of the system. As he said if he couldn't cut the defecit he would not deserve to get re elected. He hasn't done it...not even close. Not only that every single unemployment report always ends up getting revised higher. And the fact is there are just so many people that are underemployed too. I like Paul Ryan, I agree with what he is saying...As far as Mitt Romney I guess we will see what we see but I like what I hear better from him than the hope and change we were all promised.

[SW03ES]

Read up:

http://www.factcheck...welfare-reform/

You still don't respond to my post above about the deficit. We're not talking about unemployment, we're not talking about welfare, we're not talking about any of that. We're talking about the deficit. I'm not even talking about Obama...

How does Romney's spending plan make sense given the data I presented above from the Federal Budget? How can we expect that Romney can balance the budget while reducing revenue, increasing defense spending, all without touching medicare or social security? How is it possible? You run a business. Can you take in less income, increase your expenses, and continue to offer your workers the same benefits? No...

The answer is...if he cuts taxes and eliminates taxes the way he has suggested, increases defense spending as he has suggested, and doesn't cut significantly into Medicare and Social Security...he will EXPLODE the deficit. Show me where I'm wrong. We know this will happen, it makes sense when you look at the numbers, and it happened under Reagan and Bush Jr when they cut taxes...Romney has proposed even more drastic cuts. Do you remember George H.W. Bush's undoing? "Read my lips, no new taxes?" Well...he had to raise taxes? Why...because his predecessor's tax cuts exploded the deficit. He had to raise taxes or cut into Social Security and Medicare. Same thing will happen with Romney.

Like I said to Lenore...its okay to say you don't know or can't refute what I've said...as Rob did above. If you want to vote for Romney because you don't like Obama, or because Obama said this, or you think he'll be a better figurehead for the country, thats fine...but don't kid yourself or others into thinking he has some plan thats going to fix this overnight...he doesn't. In fact, his plan may make our economic situation worse. If you're okay with that...thats fine. It may help in the short term, get capital moving, create some jobs...but he WILL NOT start us down this road Lenore describes of getting our fiscal house in order. The numbers don't lie.

To me...we see a budget projection here that shows significant deficit reduction over 4 years. If we do some things to plug tax leaks and loopholes for top earners we can achieve even more reduction, the economy continues to improve we add more taxpayers in...I see how we can balance this budget. Romney is offering something that I know will make things worse. You add into that the Republican platform of redefining rape, outlawing abortion even in cases of rape, incest, or the health of the mother, a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and woman (this is their published platform)...IMHO Romney has absolutely nothing to offer. This is why I will vote for Obama in November. I don't love Obama, but I see evidence that what he is doing is working, with Romney I see proposals that will absolutely not work, coupled with a platform that comes straight from the evil Christian church that drove me out of the Republican party. For the first time...I cannot even consider voting Republican. Obama was the first Democrat I have ever voted for...and at least in 2012 doesn't look like thats a trend that is going to end.

[lenore]

Unfortunately those budget numbers again are a moving target based on projections...If the Whitehouses projections on unemployment are constantly revised, expect the same with the budget stuff. They are just trying to snow ball everybody with numbers that are not even close to true.

[SW03ES]

Even if you held that to be true, and used the figures from 2011 which are in the can, the logic behind my issue with Romney's economic plan as pertains to the deficit still stands. How do you:

1. Decrease revenue

2. Increase spending

3. Not touch Medicare or Social Security

AND

4. Balance the budget.

How is it possible? Just look at the numbers.

[nc211]

This one is for you mi' amigo!

New campaign slogan - "It juss duz"

[LEXIRX330]

Had a long night...had to put down my dog. My kids are not taking it so well.Can't even think of a good comeback SW.

[lenore]

Even if you held that to be true, and used the figures from 2011 which are in the can, the logic behind my issue with Romney's economic plan as pertains to the deficit still stands. How do you:

1. Decrease revenue

2. Increase spending

3. Not touch Medicare or Social Security

AND

4. Balance the budget.

How is it possible? Just look at the numbers.

I believe all of those have to be on the table, We need to think out of the box. Mediacare and Social Security have to be saved, but maybe in a way that government doesnt raid the systems, Spending does not have to increase. It should be froze for a few years...This would give the government some real thought processes on how to save. Taxes, well I feel that should be on the table also, maybe there is a compromise for short term, but put stipulations on where exactly they would go. The problem with government is they see this giant candy dish, and just dip without thinking.

The whole concept of a budget has to be brought back to basics. Trust me there is huge amounts of waste still to this day. My wife is in government and it makes me cry to hear what crap they pull to bypass the freezes on hiring, spending, etc. I had government as a customer Both Federal and State for over 30 years, and I could tell you years of stories of rediculous waste. Until folks realize the golden goose has been cooked, we need to really show some real problem solving, not the knee jerk ideas that come out of the 535 little kings and queens. As for Romneys plan, it is just an outline of his thoughts, remember ideas have to be hammered out in Congress. Get rid of the road blocks and lets see some people that are willing to sit down and roll their sleeves up and do what our founding fathers did. I want to see problem solving, not party bickering.

[lenore]

Had a long night...had to put down my dog. My kids are not taking it so well.Can't even think of a good comeback SW.

Sorry about the loss of a important part of the family...time heals, but it is tough. Set up a little memorial to your loss pet and have the kids be part of it. Maybe a Special Rock in the corner of the garden with some painting of thoughts about the better times with your dog. Kids need to know that their thoughts can be remembered also, Again sorry to hear about your loss, been there a few times and it really sucks...

[LEXIRX330]

Thanks..he is much better off.