carma350

It's not just "one issue with one transmission on one model" and it's not a mere "foible." I'd prefer not to list all the Toyota / Lexus models that have had transmission issues since 1999, but I can do so if you wish. Lexus has a history of transmission problems dating back to at least 1999 with the RX300. The current powertrain is not used on "one model" but three - the 2008 Avalon, Camry (V6), and Lexus ES 350, which all share the same problematic U660E 6-speed transmission that has a slip. Lexus / Toyota does not have "one of the most stellar records" for transmission reliability since 1999. I don't know how much weight you give to transmission problems (such as slips, hesitations, surges, transmission replacements, etc.) but it's a significant issue to me, especially since those problems can lead to serious transmission damage over time and a potentially serious road danger. The ES 350 had been my clear number one choice before I learned about its transmission slip problem and the Lexus / Toyota history of transmission problems. I'm now looking at 4-5 other makes / models. I agree with you that no manufacturer has a perfect 100% reliability record when it comes to powertrain issues. I'm just looking to buy a car from a manufacturer that doesn't have a history of transmission problems on a number of models, as does Lexus / Toyota.

I'm more comfortable buying a car from a manufacturer that doesn't have a history of transmission issues; that's why I'm going to avoid Lexus / Toyota. The Lexus / Camry V6's transmission reliability ratings from Consumer Reports are dropping, the Camry's more so. But they share the same powertrain, leading me to believe the ES's transmission reliability ratings will continue to drop, especially because there's no indication Lexus / Toyota have any handle on the transmission slip. I wouldn't rely solely on forum complaints. The forums give anecdotal evidence but they point me to comprehensive reliability reports such as CR. The forums and CR support each other regarding the Lexus ES transmission slip. Better to pick a manufacturer which doesn't have a history of powertrain issues. That's my rationale, right or wrong.

AZ08, since the thread in which we were conversing was locked, I responded here. Your comments were a positive for the 2008 ES since you don't have the flare. I looked at car forums plus the Consumer Reports downgrade of ES / Camry V6 quality which backs up the existence of the flare (i.e., transmission slip) and other ES problems described on forums. Yes, the CR rating for the ES could change for the better in a couple of months - it could also stay the same or get even worse. Lexus / Toyota have had a history of transmission problems going back to at least 1999 with the Lexus RX300. I also think the Lexus / Toyota response to these transmission slips is, on the whole, pathetic. I'm guessing the odds of getting a 2008 ES 350 that has: no slip (50%); minor slip which most owners wouldn't notice (49%); major slip (1% or less). I suspect any kind of slip could worsen and cause serious transmission damage - some ES owners have experienced a worsening slip. Although an owner may not notice a minor slip (200rpm), it could cause tranny damage. Some ES owners on forums are also experiencing engine hesitation and jerking /surges. That's very dangerous. Worse, Toyota refuses to recall the 6-speed transmissions - it probably won't recall the transmissions until you-know-what happens to some ES / Camry V6 / Avalon customers. Yes, there's an ES slip TSIB but several previous TSIBs haven't fixed the slip. There's no evidence from Lexus, CR, forum ES owners, or other sources that the slip is fixed. Maybe a fix will occur tomorrow. But I'm not holding my breath. Lexus may never fix the slip. Maybe the 2012 ES 380 will have a better tranny but then again, maybe it doesn't. IMO, transmission slips, tranny damage, and engine hesitation / jerking / surges are too serious a problem to gamble on. If CR gave the ES a below-average rating for its front grille logo, I could deal with it, but not when we're talking powertrain, warranty or no. There are too many good alternatives in the marketplace that have fine powertrains. Why gamble on a Lexus?

Thanks for the response. I've read other forum posts in which people said they experienced the "flare" (i.e., transmission slip) on the 2008 ES 350. And several people on the forums said the ES transmission slip may not happen during one or two test drives but only after you own it. Prior to coming across the ES forums, I had already narrowed down my list to the 2008 ES 350 - it easily topped the list. But I've concluded from the Lexus forums and Consumer Reports quality ratings downgrades (which backs up what I'm reading on the forums) that it's not worth the gamble on the Lexus ES / Toyota Avalon / Camry V6 and its potentially very dangerous transmission slip. Anyway, good luck with your ES.

Thanks for the advice. I should probably consider not only the chance that the ES I get has the flare issue but also the chance that Lexus might resolve the problem within say the next year. You never know.

I don't like the first year of a new model either, that's why I'm looking at 2008 ES. The flare may also affect the 2008. I've read at least one post from someone who noticed a flare in the 2008. I narrowed down my list to the ES but because of the quality problems mentioned on the forums, I'm looking again at several other sedans. I'll follow your advice and do research about quality on owner forums for the cars I'm considering. Then I can make a fair comparison. Would a car report from Consumer Reports, Edmunds, or other service provide detailed status about significant quality issues for the ES or other cars? Or do those publications provide only a general quality rating? I hadn't previously researched quality because all of the manufacturers I'm considering have great quality reputations. I don't fully understand how Toyota can have such a brilliant quality reputation even though some people on the forums say the company has been dogged by FWD transaxle problems dating back to 1999. Either Toyota's quality reputation is a general misperception, the people who talk about the FWD transaxle problems are overstating their case, or the ES transaxle and other issues mentioned on the forums apply to a small minority of ES owners. If either of the latter two are true, then it would help explain why Toyota's reputation is still excellent. I'm unsure about whether we're talking about a rare "lemon" here. One forum person said that someone buying a 2008 ES would probably experience at least a 200rpm flare issue. (I.e., Toyota still hasn't resolved the problem.) But I don't know how he would know those odds. I doubt anyone outside of Toyota knows whether the flare issue affects 0.1% or 100% of ES's, and who knows (other than Toyota) what the distribution of problem severity is across the ES 350's on the road?

Not interested in the IS and Infiniti G35 sports sedans because I'm looking for a conservative sedan.

I'm thinking of buying a 2008 ES 350 and have read the transmission flare discussions on different websites. I wouldn't want to venture a guess as to what the chance is of getting a ES 350 with a flare problem: 0.1%, 1%, 10%, 50%? If the ES 350 has a flare problem, what is the chance of it being a severe problem vs. a minor nuisance: 0.01%, 1%, 10%, 90%? I've read about other problems afflicting the ES 350 such as engine knocks, interior rattling noises, and wind noise. I'm sure the ES 350 has some minor problems too but those are the major ones I can recall. The easy answer for the potential buyer is to cross off Lexus from the list. Why take the chance? The ES 350 was easily my #1 choice in terms of features and value. I was attracted to the Lexus brand because my impression was that Toyota and Honda generally make the highest-quality under-$40K cars in the world. What would make more sense than buying from Toyota's "luxury" division? Car magazine journalists regularly write about "legendary Lexus quality." Which leads to a contradiction: Why does Toyota have such a stellar quality reputation even though it has had ongoing FWD transaxle problems since 1999? Why can't Toyota figure this out? Shouldn't Toyota thoroughly test pre-production models instead of making its customers responsible for quality assurance? Replaced transmissions, buybacks, amazing. It's hard to figure out the precise truth and a manufacturer is probably going to avoid transparency in this kind of situation, so I think I should move on to other makes and models. Any suggestions for FWD alternatives to the 2008 ES 350?