carma350

I would hardly call one issue with one transmission on one model for two model years "a history of transmission issues". You won't find a car company anywhere that doesn't have at least one model somewhere in its history that has had some reliability foible. Lexus has one of the most stellar records for reliability in the industry, thats an undisputable fact.

What manufacturer will you choose that has never had a model with a powertrain issue?

It's not just "one issue with one transmission on one model" and it's not a mere "foible." I'd prefer not to list all the Toyota / Lexus models that have had transmission issues since 1999, but I can do so if you wish. Lexus has a history of transmission problems dating back to at least 1999 with the RX300. The current powertrain is not used on "one model" but three - the 2008 Avalon, Camry (V6), and Lexus ES 350, which all share the same problematic U660E 6-speed transmission that has a slip.

Lexus / Toyota does not have "one of the most stellar records" for transmission reliability since 1999. I don't know how much weight you give to transmission problems (such as slips, hesitations, surges, transmission replacements, etc.) but it's a significant issue to me, especially since those problems can lead to serious transmission damage over time and a potentially serious road danger.

The ES 350 had been my clear number one choice before I learned about its transmission slip problem and the Lexus / Toyota history of transmission problems. I'm now looking at 4-5 other makes / models. I agree with you that no manufacturer has a perfect 100% reliability record when it comes to powertrain issues. I'm just looking to buy a car from a manufacturer that doesn't have a history of transmission problems on a number of models, as does Lexus / Toyota.

You still have to be aware that the people who post on internet forums are not representative of the population of car owners as a whole. For instance my generation ES (and most cars built between 98-05 with a DBW throttle) has a throttle hesitation when accelerating under some load characteristics that you'd think was rampant given the forum postings, but its never bothered me and when I meet and talk with ES of my generation owners I have never met ONE who felt the throttle had any lag. Not ONE, and I know a lot of 02-06 ES owners. Its a very popular car in my industry.

As for the RX, the RX had some transaxle failures for two years, 99-00 and only on AWD RX300s. Doesn't apply to the ES even of that generation and certainly not the ES350.

As far as jerking surges, Alan here at the LOC had an 03 ES and he was one of the people who took great issue with the throttle lag on his 03 ES. He traded it on an early run 07 ES350 and has nothing but praise for the transmission. Given all the complaining he did before I have zero reason to believe he wouldn't complain if he had problems now...

Given the fact that you're this convinced of the issue you probably would never enjoy the car. However, having been privy to all of this knowledge I'd still buy an ES350 without hesitation.

I'm more comfortable buying a car from a manufacturer that doesn't have a history of transmission issues; that's why I'm going to avoid Lexus / Toyota. The Lexus / Camry V6's transmission reliability ratings from Consumer Reports are dropping, the Camry's more so. But they share the same powertrain, leading me to believe the ES's transmission reliability ratings will continue to drop, especially because there's no indication Lexus / Toyota have any handle on the transmission slip.

I wouldn't rely solely on forum complaints. The forums give anecdotal evidence but they point me to comprehensive reliability reports such as CR. The forums and CR support each other regarding the Lexus ES transmission slip. Better to pick a manufacturer which doesn't have a history of powertrain issues. That's my rationale, right or wrong.

Whoa, Carma, I hope you didn't cross off the ES because of what I said! I'll sell you my ES with 5K and take the risk myself with a new one. I know it doesn't happen on mine, and the fact that there is a TSIB on it means that there is a fix for it. And BTW, where did you see that the 08 had the same problem? Also, what I meant about CR was, that if you don't like the review, wait a couple of months, it will change...

Anyway, what are you going to get now?

AZ08, since the thread in which we were conversing was locked, I responded here.

Your comments were a positive for the 2008 ES since you don't have the flare.

I looked at car forums plus the Consumer Reports downgrade of ES / Camry V6 quality which backs up the existence of the flare (i.e., transmission slip) and other ES problems described on forums. Yes, the CR rating for the ES could change for the better in a couple of months - it could also stay the same or get even worse. Lexus / Toyota have had a history of transmission problems going back to at least 1999 with the Lexus RX300. I also think the Lexus / Toyota response to these transmission slips is, on the whole, pathetic.

I'm guessing the odds of getting a 2008 ES 350 that has: no slip (50%); minor slip which most owners wouldn't notice (49%); major slip (1% or less). I suspect any kind of slip could worsen and cause serious transmission damage - some ES owners have experienced a worsening slip. Although an owner may not notice a minor slip (200rpm), it could cause tranny damage. Some ES owners on forums are also experiencing engine hesitation and jerking /surges. That's very dangerous. Worse, Toyota refuses to recall the 6-speed transmissions - it probably won't recall the transmissions until you-know-what happens to some ES / Camry V6 / Avalon customers.

Yes, there's an ES slip TSIB but several previous TSIBs haven't fixed the slip. There's no evidence from Lexus, CR, forum ES owners, or other sources that the slip is fixed. Maybe a fix will occur tomorrow. But I'm not holding my breath. Lexus may never fix the slip. Maybe the 2012 ES 380 will have a better tranny but then again, maybe it doesn't. IMO, transmission slips, tranny damage, and engine hesitation / jerking / surges are too serious a problem to gamble on. If CR gave the ES a below-average rating for its front grille logo, I could deal with it, but not when we're talking powertrain, warranty or no. There are too many good alternatives in the marketplace that have fine powertrains. Why gamble on a Lexus?

Personally, I have not experienced this flare in my 08, if it happens it is not perceptible by me.

But then CR is now reporting different overall quality in Toyota, lowering a bit.

So I learned to take those reports with a little bit of skepticism. What they see and observe are things that I could never see or feel anyway but it is good to know. Like I said, the ES will have this problem, the G45 will have that problem, the C-class another, and on, and on and on. If you pay too much attention to those things, you will never buy a car.

Test drive the cars, see how they make you feel, see how they look, and how they make you happy. After you decide which car you want, then test drive it before you buy it. Then if it is still good, take the plunge! We would love to have you in the Lexus family and we hope that yours will not disappoint you.

Thanks for the response. I've read other forum posts in which people said they experienced the "flare" (i.e., transmission slip) on the 2008 ES 350. And several people on the forums said the ES transmission slip may not happen during one or two test drives but only after you own it. Prior to coming across the ES forums, I had already narrowed down my list to the 2008 ES 350 - it easily topped the list. But I've concluded from the Lexus forums and Consumer Reports quality ratings downgrades (which backs up what I'm reading on the forums) that it's not worth the gamble on the Lexus ES / Toyota Avalon / Camry V6 and its potentially very dangerous transmission slip. Anyway, good luck with your ES.

Like I said, the ES will have this problem, the G45 will have that problem, the C-class another, and on, and on and on. If you pay too much attention to those things, you will never buy a car.

Test drive the cars, see how they make you feel, see how they look, and how they make you happy. After you decide which car you want, then test drive it before you buy it. Then if it is still good, take the plunge! We would love to have you in the Lexus family and we hope that yours will not disappoint you. BTW - make sure you tour the service department, it may influence your decision as well.

Thanks for the advice. I should probably consider not only the chance that the ES I get has the flare issue but also the chance that Lexus might resolve the problem within say the next year. You never know.

Now carma, is this your first time in a forum like this? People many times post their bad experiences here, not the good ones. You have to look very deeply into some of the threads to see positive comments, to find those posts where people actually do like the features. So the transmission problem, do you see a thread that says, "Hey, I was so surprised, my car does not have the transmission flare! Yipee, I got lucky, I got one of the few good ones." Also, the flare was a problem with the 07s, normally problems with TSBs and other manufacturing/assembly issues get corrected when they retool the plant floor in the model year change over. That's why it is a common rule of thumb not to buy a car in its first year of production, let them work the kinks out.

So, I suggest you do your research in other owner forums, and then close your eyes and jump in. Whatever you get, you might get a lemon, but most likely you will not.

I don't like the first year of a new model either, that's why I'm looking at 2008 ES. The flare may also affect the 2008. I've read at least one post from someone who noticed a flare in the 2008. I narrowed down my list to the ES but because of the quality problems mentioned on the forums, I'm looking again at several other sedans. I'll follow your advice and do research about quality on owner forums for the cars I'm considering. Then I can make a fair comparison. Would a car report from Consumer Reports, Edmunds, or other service provide detailed status about significant quality issues for the ES or other cars? Or do those publications provide only a general quality rating? I hadn't previously researched quality because all of the manufacturers I'm considering have great quality reputations.

I don't fully understand how Toyota can have such a brilliant quality reputation even though some people on the forums say the company has been dogged by FWD transaxle problems dating back to 1999. Either Toyota's quality reputation is a general misperception, the people who talk about the FWD transaxle problems are overstating their case, or the ES transaxle and other issues mentioned on the forums apply to a small minority of ES owners. If either of the latter two are true, then it would help explain why Toyota's reputation is still excellent.

I'm unsure about whether we're talking about a rare "lemon" here. One forum person said that someone buying a 2008 ES would probably experience at least a 200rpm flare issue. (I.e., Toyota still hasn't resolved the problem.) But I don't know how he would know those odds. I doubt anyone outside of Toyota knows whether the flare issue affects 0.1% or 100% of ES's, and who knows (other than Toyota) what the distribution of problem severity is across the ES 350's on the road?

Have you thought about the Lexus IS series, test drove one? IS even has R/AWD version.

Not interested in the IS and Infiniti G35 sports sedans because I'm looking for a conservative sedan.

I'm thinking of buying a 2008 ES 350 and have read the transmission flare discussions on different websites. I wouldn't want to venture a guess as to what the chance is of getting a ES 350 with a flare problem: 0.1%, 1%, 10%, 50%? If the ES 350 has a flare problem, what is the chance of it being a severe problem vs. a minor nuisance: 0.01%, 1%, 10%, 90%? I've read about other problems afflicting the ES 350 such as engine knocks, interior rattling noises, and wind noise. I'm sure the ES 350 has some minor problems too but those are the major ones I can recall. The easy answer for the potential buyer is to cross off Lexus from the list. Why take the chance?

The ES 350 was easily my #1 choice in terms of features and value. I was attracted to the Lexus brand because my impression was that Toyota and Honda generally make the highest-quality under-$40K cars in the world. What would make more sense than buying from Toyota's "luxury" division? Car magazine journalists regularly write about "legendary Lexus quality." Which leads to a contradiction: Why does Toyota have such a stellar quality reputation even though it has had ongoing FWD transaxle problems since 1999? Why can't Toyota figure this out? Shouldn't Toyota thoroughly test pre-production models instead of making its customers responsible for quality assurance? Replaced transmissions, buybacks, amazing.

It's hard to figure out the precise truth and a manufacturer is probably going to avoid transparency in this kind of situation, so I think I should move on to other makes and models. Any suggestions for FWD alternatives to the 2008 ES 350?