I ended up getting a new painted bumper via Ebay. An outfit in Michigan asks for your VIN number to get the manufacturer's paint code. Their bumpers aren't official Lexus but they do assure that they are insurance company certified. Total was about $286 - painted bumper shipped to your door. I sweated it even tho their feedback rating is excellent - what if it's damaged from shipping? How about the paint quality and match? A lot of holes to match up-what if they don't?...
Turns out the packing was great - they used an entire roll of large bubblewrap. There was a slight underside scuff, but that occurred before it was wrapped, and once mounted it wasn't visible. Also there was clearkote over- spray on the bottom edge - again not visible unless one lays on the ground and looks up.
The grey color was a shade dark. Could this be due to 5 yrs in Arizona sunshine, I don't know. But almost no one can see the difference but me. The most critical aspect for me was the fit. Turns out all the holes and tabs fit perfectly, even in the difficult area of the grill insert points. I saved about $1200 off the quote by my body shop and I'm pleased with myself every time I walk out into the garage and look at "Bella". I'd definitely do it again...
As the job went, I took my time and photoed upclose all the assembly's and fasteners and snaps to ensure all went back together as intended. The car was on jack stands and there were moving blankets covering the floor underneath. This cushioned the new bumper, and kept dropped parts from bouncing all over the garage. I kept everything together in order of dis assembly so that when the time came to reinstall, I moved with speed and confidence.
I won't go into detail on 2 other issues - a broken vertical "spacer" -Lexus wanted $97 for - and fog light - $150 from the dealer. Both I easily repaired with plastic bumper scrap and rivets.