eatingupblacktop Posted June 2, 2009 Posted June 2, 2009 A short rant ... from the Toronto Star: "A leading shipbroker recently noted crude oil surpassing more than 100 million barrels is being stored in tankers at sea so traders can take advantage of higher futures prices. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has reported that speculative positions on the Nymex jumped 14 per cent last week. "There is mounting evidence that excessive speculation, not supply and demand, is the cause for the recent run-up in oil prices," Senator Bernie Sanders, the independent from Vermont, wrote in a letter last week to the commodity commission chairman Gary Gensler."
RX in NC Posted June 2, 2009 Posted June 2, 2009 I agree - I believe that speculation is responsible for about 85% of the price spikes we're seeing now.... So I'm back playing crude oil options for the first time since last summer. No sense missing out on the profits to be made. I can !Removed! and moan about the artificially-escalating price of gas or I can jump in and play the options and make some money off of the inevitable.... Back to my options charts.... Later, guys....
nc211 Posted June 2, 2009 Posted June 2, 2009 eatingupblacktop: In the "gas prices" thread, which I think is in the new club lounge section? I posted a few articles recently that I've found that suggest the speculators are squeezing out the last of the $140/barrel price quotes from last summer, this summer. What's happening is that countless smaller oil producers sold forward contract to deliver oil for the-then price of $140 a barrel. Everyone was in this frenzy that it was certain to hit $200+ a barrel last year, so all of these refineries ordered as much as possible at the $140 rates, to be delivered as late as September 2009, when the last of the contracts expires. There are movers and shakers lurking in the shadows from the big guys, like Exxon, Mobile, Chevron, that are preparing to spend some of those insane profits from last year, this October to buy up the smaller guys. The reason they can't buy them now "and haven't during this economic meltdown", is that the small companies are still be valued on their inventory, at $140 a barrel. It makes no sense to buy a company's inventory at that price level when oil has been in the $40-$50 range for the past several months. So, the smaller oil companies see the September date coming, see the oil price is low, want to avoid getting crushed in the fall, and are trying to "manipulate" the market again to get prices back up, so when the big boys do come knocking on the door on October 1st, their sales price will be higher than it is today. Plus, when the big boys do start buying up the broke little guys, they're going to get that oil sitting in the tankers too. And at some point, that oil is gonna have to be introduced into the system to justify the true cost of drilling for it and storing it. The big guys are going to low ball the offers for the small guys, cause' they'll know they're desperate to make some kind of profit. That should translate into lower costs for us consumers at the pump as well. ALL the ingredients are in place for a major major oil bust this winter, just like in the early 90's which led to $10 a barrel prices. Back then, billions of barrels of oil were stuck in storage containers as well. We were on the back side of Dessert Storm 1, had some high prices back then, and much of the same moves in the oil sector then, are being done now. But, I'm willing to bet in the coming months, and especially as the fall season approaches, we'll start to read the same kind of crap articles in the business world about oil, like we did last summer. It's all b/s. Some "analyst" somewhere will say "Venezualla tribal warriors threaten pipeline to world" and try to generate a frenzy of panic. But, I think the gig is up. Especially as the #1 consumer of oil products is struggling in general - the car makers. At some point, all of those tankers floating around with billiions of gallons of oil, will have to come to port and unload. And when they do, it won't be the highest bidder to win, it'll be the lowest - a reversal from what we've seen and starting to see again now (although weaker). If Congress allows oil to get that out of control like it was last summer again, then they truly are idiots, and any sense of economic recovery that we're feeling today, will be blown away into a real depression. The world is stretched too thin for any sustainable amount of time of oil being above $40 a barrel prices. The rubberband effect is about to occur, and it's about to snap back into position....in the fall.
nc211 Posted June 4, 2009 Posted June 4, 2009 Case in point: An article from an investment bank stating why it believes oil will hit around $95 a barrel. Yet, the article seems to ignore 1) All the oil sitting in tankers around the world now, that can't find a home 2) A shift in the automobile industry towards more fuel effecient cars 3) A society that learned last summer how to conserve fuel - and willing to do it again - and had a positive impact to lower prices 4) An economy that is so bad, that people are basically driving their cars to work and back, assuming you still have a job 5) A society that is catching on to these b/s tactics by investment banks and speculators. This article is nothing more, I repeat, nothing more than a perfect example of "speculation". Speculation is the theory of shallow theories, and almost always ignores the true underlying base of any economy - the consumer's ability and willingness to accept something. YOU willing to accept another run up in oil prices? I didn't think so... These idiots better becareful, as they run the risk of causing a repeat performance to the economy. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a1Ev4HxCKXRI
nc211 Posted June 11, 2009 Posted June 11, 2009 But, I'm willing to bet in the coming months, and especially as the fall season approaches, we'll start to read the same kind of crap articles in the business world about oil, like we did last summer. I give you Exhibit A: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/ju...market-reserves This is almost comical on how easy it is to see what really going on. I'm VERY curious to see what Obama does about this repeat situation. He hasn't been shy to slam other sectors of the economy for doing things that seem to hurt the general public's wallet. Let's see if he has the nuggets to do the same to big oil.
SKperformance Posted June 12, 2009 Posted June 12, 2009 http://www.mcteague.ca/WebPages/gas_price_today.htm Page from a liberal mp who lists gas prices before they change . He has some interesting info as well.
nc211 Posted July 16, 2009 Posted July 16, 2009 Finally! Someone says something other than UP UP UP! RX, if you're still kicking around with the crude options, you better have a hair trigger to bail, because I think the drop is going to hit hard, and hit fast! Summary: Oil to hit $20 this year... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aQBXqFcd5gJo
RX in NC Posted July 17, 2009 Posted July 17, 2009 You're a bit late with your advice, nc211. I bailed out of the last of my crude options with a healthy 74% profit margin this past Tuesday afternoon. Today being Options Expiration Friday for the month of July, my own personal deadline was yesterday at 3:45 pm. I don't gamble - I take highly-calculated, well-studied, laser-projected, and constantly-monitored risks. I went ahead and sold out on Tuesday and moved on to some little-known technology options that have been good to me during the past two summers. But it's a different world now and my expectations are lowered as a result. We'll see what happens over the course of the next 60 days....
nc211 Posted July 17, 2009 Posted July 17, 2009 Better late than never, chief! I'm curious how Bing is going to do to Microsoft. I can't say specifics, but I can say that there has been a lot of focus in commercial real estate on IT based facilities as of late...a sign for that sector.
RX in NC Posted July 17, 2009 Posted July 17, 2009 In the options world, "late" and "never" are often the same thing. Both can kill you equally dead....
nc211 Posted July 17, 2009 Posted July 17, 2009 which is why i won't touch the stuff. Black Sholes...my butt.
Lexus GS430 Guzzler Posted July 21, 2009 Posted July 21, 2009 oh wow. I read about this because a company I invest in, Frontline (FRO) has a bunch of supertankers and some of them are being used for the hoarding.
Lexusfreak Posted July 21, 2009 Posted July 21, 2009 http://www.mcteague.ca/WebPages/gas_price_today.htmPage from a liberal mp who lists gas prices before they change . He has some interesting info as well. Nice find sk! Thanks.
nc211 Posted July 28, 2009 Posted July 28, 2009 In time, the truth will always come out..... On the front page of today's Wall Street Journal, the lead story reads....... TRADERS BLAMED FOR OIL SPIKE http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124874574251485689.html BY IANTHE JEANNE DUGAN AND ALISTAIR MACDONALD The Commodity Futures Trading Commission plans to issue a report next month suggesting speculators played a significant role in driving wild swings in oil prices -- a reversal of an earlier CFTC position that augurs intensifying scrutiny on investors. In a contentious report last year, the main U.S. futures-market regulator pinned oil-price swings primarily on supply and demand. But that analysis was based on "deeply flawed data," Bart Chilton, one of four CFTC commissioners, said in an interview Monday. The CFTC's new review, due to be released in August, adds fuel to a growing debate over financial investors who bet ... ....and to combat it, comes the following headline.... GENSLER PUSHES FOR TRADING CURBS http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124878844608286821.html By SARAH N. LYNCH WASHINGTON -- The chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Tuesday he believes the agency must "seriously consider" setting "strict" new limits on traders who place bets on energy contracts.... ...and the proof in the pudding...or "who smelt it, dealt it".. TRADERS BALK AT PLANS TO LIMIT NATURAL-GAS TRADES http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1248745633...icle-outset-box By CAROLYN CUI While regulators debate how to curb excessive speculation in commodities markets, exchanges are moving to impose limits on natural-gas trading, sparking outrage among traders. In the face of pending restrictions, natural-gas prices have swung wildly and trading volume has declined, highlighting the dilemma facing regulators: how to heighten oversight without introducing adverse consequences. Ohhhh....can ya' smell it! Ahh, the sweet smell of cheap gas lingering over the horizon...
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