THIS IS NOT THE 'DON'T BUY' GAS FOR ONE DAY, BUT IT WILL SHOW YOU HOW WE CAN GET GAS BACK DOWN TO $1.30 PER GALLON.

This makes MUCH MORE SENSE than the 'don't buy gas on a certain day' campaign that was going around last April or May!
It's worth your consideration. Join the resistance!!!!

I hear we are going to hit close to $ 4.00 a gallon by next summer, and it might go higher!! Want gasoline prices to come down?

We need to take some intelligent, united action. The oil companies just laughed at that because they knew we wouldn't continue to 'hurt' ourselves by refusing to buy gas.

It was more of an inconvenience to us than it was a problem for them.
BUT, whoever thought of this idea has come up with a plan that can really work. Please read on and join with us!

By now you're probably thinking gasoline priced at about $2.00 is super cheap. Me too! It is currently $3.19 for regular unleaded in my town.

Now that the oil companies and the OPEC nations have conditioned us to think that the cost of a gallon of gas is CHEAP at $1.50 - $1.75, we need to take aggressive action to teach them that BUYERS control the marketplace..not sellers.

With the price of gasoline going up more each day, we consumers need to take action.

The only way we are going to see the price of gas come down is if we hit someone in the pocketbook by not purchasing their gas! And, we can do that WITHOUT hurting ourselves.

How? Since we all rely on our cars, we can't just stop buying gas.

But we CAN have an impact on gas prices if we all act together to force a price war.

Here's the idea: For the rest of this year, DON'T purchase ANY gasoline from the two biggest companies (which now are one), EXXON and MOBIL.

If they are not selling any gas, they will be inclined to reduce their prices.
If they reduce their prices, the other companies will have to follow suit.

But to have an impact, we need to reach literally millions of Exxon and Mobil gas buyers. It's really simple to do! Now, don't wimp out on me at this point...keep reading and I'll explain how simple it is to reach millions of people!!

I am sending this note to 30 people. If each of us send it to at least ten more (30 x 10 = 300) ... and those 300 send it to at least ten more (300 x10 = 3,000)...and so on, by the time the message reaches the sixth group of people, we will have reached over THREE MILLION consumers.
If those three million get excited and pass this on to ten friends each, then 30 million people will have been contacted!

If it goes one level further, you guessed it..... THREE HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE!!!

Again, all you have to do is send this to 10 people. That's all!

(If you don't understand how we can reach 300 million and all you have to do is send this to 10 people.... Well, let's face it, you just aren't a mathematician. But I am . so trust me on this one.

How long would all that take? If each of us sends this e-mail out to ten more people within one day of receipt, all 300 MILLION people could conceivably be contacted within the next 8 days !!!

I'll bet you didn't think you and I had that much potential, did you!
Acting together we can make a difference.

If this makes sense to you, please pass this message on. I suggest that we not buy from EXXON/MOBIL UNTIL THEY LOWER THEIR PRICES TO THE $2.00 RANGE AND KEEP THEM DOWN. THIS CAN REALLY WORK.

gas is already $4 a gallon and i doubt that this would help as its been floating around for many months now.... i'm gonna have to break out my 10 speed mountain bike.

Of course it won't work with that attitude! With a little bit of effort, maybe it'll help. What do you have to lose, except a little bit of your precious time.

i dont know, but i never thought i would see the day when it cost 40 bucks to fill a honda civic...

but then again i never thought i would see the day that a silverado would get 20mpg either...

First, the original proposal post is too long and is redundant.

Secondly, there are not 300 million people that can or will read and understand such an effort.

Thirdly, the greed of the American public is underestimated. If any gas retailer lowers the price by a few cents the customers would pour in.

Fourthly, the independence of the American consumer is not taken into account. Reinvestigate the "Buy American" campaign that our economy desperately needs. Then realize that we own a Lexus and half of the items in the home were made in China or the Philippines.

Carpooling, using mass transit, "drive 55", and other attempts have been woefully unsuccessful as well. Just observe how many single-passenger cars are in the commute. Doubling the amount of people in those cars would reduce the gas consumption by half for that major portion of the market.

Sure, flame this post as being negative, but if reality is negative then so be it.

There are some that would see such a "chain letter" effort as an exercise in socialism, unionism, or even communism and each one of those philosophies is in decline. That is just not how Americans are composed. Refusal to be led by the snout is what this country is based on. The price of gas is unfortunate but it is largely brought on by attitudes and habits that are not likely to change.

Maybe when the price of gas reaches $10 per gallon some attitudes will change from whining to productive action. There are viable solutions available and others in the works but a sufficient level of desperation has not been reached to implement them.

As has been stated many times in the old canard, "The price of freedom is not free."

You want to drop gas prices..... figure out a way to get the SEC to launch a full investigation into all of these hedge funds on wall street that are artifically inflating the futures on oil. Then, you will see the price of oil tank, and very quickly. So long as the Securities & Exchance Commission continues it's blind eye approach, it won't matter if the entire country turns off all of their gasoline engines for a month, the prices will continue to be falsely elevated. Honestly, there isn't an analyst out there that can support the current excuse of supply & demand for the reason prices are so high. OPEC knows this, but they also know the options traders are HEAVILY tied into oil. Match the housing collapse of current, you dump energy now too, you will see big time trouble. I hate these prices, and there is no justification for them, but as long as supply & demand takes second seat to profit margins used in hedge funds, there ain't nothing to be done. BUT, don't worry fellas, it's all going to come crashing down in a few months. I've made that prediction a few times on here, and I'm sticking to it. Prices will hit all-time highs during the next 90-120 days, ALL TIME HIGHS, then, when the Presidential campaign begins to show the most likely path for the next 4 years, things will settle down, The Texas Twister Boys "Bush & Cheney" will be sent home, and the ones who've been artificially running up the price of oil will get out and run for cover, for fears of being caught. You can feel it, you can sense it. It's like that teenager who throws the big party while mom & dad are out of town. He talks all big, acts like he's king of the world, but about 24 hours before the folks come home, does everything he can to cover up his tracks so he won't get caught. Same thing here....

Those involved with the oil trading will scramble to squeeze out as much money as they can for the summer, knowing this type of environment will not happen again for a couple decades, then they'll cash out and get out, and we'll be seeing the prices fall.

Don't believe me? Don't think there is something screwy just under the surface of all of this? Then ask yourself why the government "1st time in history" is bailing out all of these subprime lenders, but doing nothing to address the oil prices? I mean come on, we've got over 100k troops in Iraq, yet we're short on oil? I smell total Bull Sh*t!!! Some dude with a blanket on his head, says in some small Arabic country that 2 of his 20 oil pumps are down for maintenance, and the prices spike? Bull Sh*t. Complete Bull Sh*t. I bet, if I, a white colar worker, with my mortgage and suv in the garage, sent a random email to some wall street trader, saying "I heard Saudi Arabia is going to replace their entire oil tanker shipping equipment with bigger boats that can't fit through the Suez Canal", you'd see oil prices spike. They'd use that one random, untraceable, and unsupported, email as an excuse to ramp up the prices.

Just pinch your pennies for the summer the best you can. Stick close to home, if possible, and do your best to ride it out. Thankfully though, it's summer and not winter, at least we won't get screwed on home heating oil prices. They're gonna screw us over this summer, but payback will happen....just wait for it...it'll happen.

On a side note, if you need an SUV, and can either use it sparingly, or can afford the $150 fill ups, this summer is going to be one of the best times ever to get a great deal!

Nobody thought the dot.com business would fail, until it did. Nobody ever thought the commercial real estate business would tank, until it did "several times in history -late 70's, early 80's, early 90's". And, nobody thought the housing market would tank, until it did. At some point, the oil sector will follow suit, as it has in the past as well. Anyone old enough to remember the 80's in Texas and Oklahoma? Oil guys made a killing under Jimmy Carter, then all went bankrupt under Reagan, and quickly!

Which leads me to McCain, and why I'm voting for him. He's been around, he knows the game, and they know he knows the game "which is all it takes". Obama, I fear, could get taken to school. Hillary...well, just can't do it.

I don't like being bullied. Which is what the gas companies are doing. I think the whole gas price issue has been way out of hand, and I want to do "something" about it, but it would take a world effort. I think we need to effect a big business conglomerate to apply the pressure for us. Like if all the smokers would say I have to give up ciggerrettes in order to afford gas, then the big tabbacco industry would get involved and "Vinnie two tone" the lawyer would assemble a meet, we would see gas prices plummet for sure then.

It's an interesting theory generally speaking (willing to give it a shot here), but I'm not the most confident it will work personally.....Gas prices here as of this morning are $1.15 per Litre......do the conversion & that's $4.35 for a U.S. Gallon or $5.22 of an Imp gallon ...and will continue to rise as we get into the summer months.

The best advice I've heard (short of taking public transit, or switching to a more fuel efficient vehicle) is to combine your errands, look far down the road to aviod hard stops, drive gently on acceleration & keep your vehicle properly tuned & tire pressures at their correct level.....stretch out that tank of gas.

easy for me, 30mpg city is my friend

Easier for me... I just use my work vehicle if I can! Then the dealership pays for the gas lol.

Iv just paid £1.06 Ltr

Thats $2.12

Prices flirting with $120 a barrel! wow

whoever just said they paid $2.12, i hope thats per litre, cause if not, I WOULD KILL to pay your prices...Gas up here just hit $3.70 a gallon for regular and $4.01 a gallon US for premium. I use the "cheap" stuff in the civic, cause I can

I don't think anyone is going to lower the price below their cost no matter what.

That member is in the UK so yes that's $2.12 per litre......or $8.01 per US gallon....& $9.63 for a UK gallon.

I don't know why the oil companies don't just wear masks & carry shotguns! lol

I heard on the NATIONAL news two nights ago, and finally mentioned on a national forum, that the "speculators" are running the oil futures market right now. Speculators....the same kind that speculated during the housing boom, also known as flippers...and also the same ones who are accounting for the vast majority of the foreclosures. Not all, but the majority.

Give it time....they'll lose thier asses in this too. They're also artificially running up other commodities, such as rice, by pimping bogus supply and demand reports. Somebody is going to get thier butts handed to them...

Oh, and to put the cherry on the cake.... President Bush made it official three days ago, on CNN.com, by saying "America is not in a recession". Does that idiot even own a calculator?

I liked him after 9/11. But now, I can't stand him, and ANYTHING would be better. He's left the economic barn door wide open, and too stupid to realize it. His buddies are robbing the cookie store, blind.

I saw right through Bush the Moron well before the election in 2000 and did my best to warn anyone who would bother to listen. A lot of good it did this country, sad to say. I used to proclaim him the worst president in the past 100 years. But now he's lowered the bar to become the worst president this nation has ever suffered through. It will take the good ol' USA close to a decade to recover from his imbecilic reign....

Hahaha!!!! RX, I KNEW you'd be the first to post up after my comment!

I would gladly donate $1,000 to the charity of Bush's choice if he would agree to step into the boxing ring with me for just one three-minute round. Words cannot express the beating I would inflict upon that moron. Hell, put it on pay-per-view as a charity benefit, promote it for just one week in advance, and whatever charity Bush selected would enjoy its single highest fundraising day in its history....

lol, even with his years of military experience??? hahahahahahaha... i hope the secret service doesn't read this although they probably already did.. hmmm i think i hear my bank account being frozen again.

call me mr. pita but people here own some $40K+ cars and are complaining about gas prices????Come down to texass: pump on one side and sell on the other. Prices are the same as up North..

For me the gas in my car is not the issue (could careless). Issue is diesel since all items are trucked in and food is a joke....That and copper prices...

I hope the oil market falls out since it is way out of wack.

thats what im saying...you pay 40,000 for a car, but are concerned about gas prices?

thats why i drive what i do, gas prices. if not for that, i would have bought an LS400/430. (probably a 430 now).

for the record, Unleaded here is 3.75 a gallon for REGULAR...i dont think its anywhere near that in texas. my dad still pays about 75 bucks to fill his F150...people i know that have them here, pay nearly $90-100. my dad yesterday said he paid 3.48 for gas, and while still outrageous, thats nowhere near what we are paying here in upstate NY.

..

(sigh)

Shrinks point out that humanity's knee jerk reaction is to blame. "It's the Dem's fault" ... "It's the neocons" ... "It's congress" ... "It's the oil companies" ... "It's the left" ... It's the right".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

You can pick any of over TEN THOUSAND WEB PAGES to do your homework ... but we BETTER all do our homework, and STOP the blame game. Geologist like Hubbert have known since the 1950's that U.S. spiraling consumption of fossil fuel would outstrip production by the early 1970's. Lo & behold, during that time (if you aren't old enough to remember), we were forming lines around the block to get our "fix" of more gas. And so the imports became our way of life ... now over 50% is imported. The gas lines of the 1970's were back when we imported less than 15%. So guess how it'll be if we ever loose 50%-60% of our "fix".

Peak Oil is no longer a theory, yet most are so ignorant, they're still fixed on cars with MORE POWER. Equally lame are folks that brag, "I don't care if gas hits $10/gallon ... I aint driving no slug, cuz I got a ton of dough so it won't bother me". That's not only ignorant ... but selfish as well. You see, as demand continues to ever spiral upward at an increasing rate (due to China & India now becoming huge consumers), and supplies dwindling, the cost of fossil fuel products effect EVERYTHING, from paint, plastic, asphalt, food (all fertilizer comes from fossil fuel) to manufacturing, mining. It's the new form of money. It's what allows everything to be as cheep as it WAS. So goes the cheep fuel? So goes cheep everything.

Open Alaska / Arctic? Geologists all agree, that if the U.S. was able to use that region exclusively for all our fuel? It'd last less than a year. Shale? Tar sand? All of it. It aint cheep. Experts say emphatically, we are at the apex of a paradigm shift in the way we do things. It ain't about, "hey, let's show 'em ... we won't buy gas from Exxon". It aint about, "get congress to have another 'investigation' again". Congress says they investigate with each new spike. The result? Buryed. They don't want to say what we're headed for because they don't want to pull the market down. But congress deals w/ the crisis every week. But their hands are tied because big oil paid for a good part of their election, and most of our 401k's and mutual fund retirement portfolios are filled w/ fossil fuel shares. No easy answer.

All oil companies feed off the same refinery pipes. Exxon simply would sell their entitlement to Shell, Arco, etc. Stop patronizing one type of gas station and all you to is put those mom & pop owners in dire straits as they make only a few cents off each gallon. Sorry for the large dose of reality. Shrings say people can't handle too large a dose of reality either. Argue with it all you want, or ignore it ... we need to get off the oil addiction while we can. Be wise, it's not a price gouging thing. It's simple economics. Supply & demand and the supply is going down, never to return again. Road Warrior de ja vu? Who knows.

I agree with you for the most part. The oil will run out. I, too, for awhile was sort of "doomsdayish" about this whole peak oil thing. The truth of it all is I don't think we can go back to the old school way of doing things with horse and buggy. The human race has proven itself time and time again that as environments and resources change, we change the way we live in order to maintain our current ways of life. Hell, I'm only 22 and I remember when it was a big deal that gas was hitting a dollar a gallon. Now it's four dollars a gallon and my family doesn't make anymore money than it did then, but we still find ways to drive everywhere we want to go. It just means sacrifices in other areas. Once oil becomes too expensive to sell to the average consumer, the oil companies are gonna have to start charging for alternative energy. If I had to guess I'd say they already have the technology to let us drive without oil. If you guys haven't seen "Who Killed the Electric Car", you should check it out. When all the money that can possibly be made off of oil has been made, then they will let us have electric/alternative fuel vehicles, but probably not a minute before that. Just my two cents.

$3.79 for regular...went up about $.15 cents over night..... The summer crunch is on, and I'm betting we hit $4.50 before it's all done and said for in the fall.

I wish someone would ask the presidential canidates who's going to put in stop-caps on the trading floor on wall street on oil....as this is all just b/s speculators....

....i stick by my personal opinions, that oil will tank close to the election and those speculator investors who survived the housing bubble, will get wacked in the energy bubble.

But we better pray that hurricane "expert" at the university of colorado is wrong "again" this year, and we don't have any hurricanes run through the gulf, taking out those oil platforms. In years past, during the la nina' cycle, the storms have mostly hit the east coast, as the water up here is much warmer during the cycle.

Click to view attachment

Looks like CA gas prices win . . . Be glad ... be very glad, you don't live north of the bay area. On the bright side, these folks, like the rest of us will look back in 18 months or so, and they'll say, "remember when we though THAT amount was a lot to pay for a gallon". Just like all comodities, the price will ocasionally drop . . . on its ever upward spiral. Hopefully next year Mitsubishi will come out w/ their pure electric ... a small car, but I sure don't need status, just to get from pont A to B, especially if transportation costs become more than 5% of spendable income.

I think back a couple of months ago when some of the oil analysts were saying that U.S. average gas prices would peak around Memorial Day at about $3.40 a gallon. I thought they were way off then and obviously that has turned out to be the case. So I decided to employ the ever-increasing price of crude (and therefore gas) as part of my options strategy during April and May and as it turns out, I was very fortunate indeed. May 16th is Options Expiration Friday for this month and if my charts stay on the course they've been setting over the past four weeks, I'm set for a huge payday. But ever the fiscal conservative, I'll sell my positions by late Thursday (if not before) and won't run the risk of heading into Friday with my positions still in play when the jitters could very well strike the oil industry speculators and crush those who hang on too long. No sense trying to stay in the game for every last dollar and then wind up losing everything and more by being greedy....

That's a good play RX! For the record, when I bark about the speculators running up the price, I'm not talking about folks like you that invest for your own personal benefit, I'm talking about all of these hedge fund guys making plays in the 10's of millions at a time, in hopes of staying afloat due to their heavy load of mortgage-backed securities that have now tanked and they can't shake loose. I think a law should be implemented that caps the amount of one single type of security these hedge funders can have. They're running around the markets practically unchecked, especially the international players.

That will be batter if its a list

nc211,

No worries, I realize you're not directing your speculator venom at guys like me. Hey, I'm just taking advantage of what is essentially a two-pronged problem - speculation and gouging. And I'm just small potatoes compared to the greedheads you're talking about. Four weeks ago I jumped into this particular play with a $19,000 investment. If my charts hold up through tomorrow afternoon just before the market closes, I expect to net between $68,000 and $72,000. A lot can happen between now and then of course, but no-brainer plays like this one only come around a few times a year and you have to jump on them when they do. The great thing is that if my charts keep going up at a similar pace early next week, I'll simply repeat the same play for the June options market. I don't think it will be quite as lucrative as May has been, but with these potential profit margins it is certainly worth another shot next month as long as I recognize that I may have to sell my positions much earlier in the game if the June trends begin to fall back....

This has been magnificent fun as long as I can continue to manage to keep my greed tendencies firmly in check. My options experience (and success) over the past 4 years has been primarily in playing technology, not oil, and oil is a far, far more volatile and dangerous ball game right now. So my eyes will be glued to my 21-minute charts with my fingers ready to pull the trigger on my keyboard at the slightest indication of trouble in the oil market....

May history repeat itself! As it usually does, time and time again! This is just part of an article posted today, discussing Bush's options during his visit to Saudi Arabia today.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...5/bcnoil115.xml



"...But if the downturn spreads from North America to Europe, Japan, and even China, it could upset with the delicately balance forces of supply and demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says demand will cool to 86.8m bpd this year, falling below supply for several quarters.

It estimates for demand growth in 2008 at just 1m bpd , less than half the level predicted last July.

US inventories are creeping up. They are slightly above their five-year average of 326m barrels. Eduardo Lopez, the IEA's chief oil analyst, says OPEC is fears that prices could tumble as the slowdown bites.

"Even if they increased supply today, it would not hit the market until June or July, just as demand slows. They are bad memories from past cycles. Some of these countries are spending so much that they can barely get by with prices at $125, so they are very worried about losing revenues. Iran and Venezuela are textbook cases," he said.

James Williams of West Texas Research Group said OPEC was right to be wary of the turning cycle. "If stocks build up at a time of recession, it creates the possibility of an unmanageable collapse. Oil could drop like a rock,"he said..."

Until there is a new sector for investors to play in, oil/food/clothing "the staple-3" will continue to be the favorites. In my opinion, real estate will return for investors, specifically commercial real estate. Single family residential caused the collapse "subprime", not commercial, eventhough commercial is being dragged down by guilt-of-association. However, when you realize that most commercial real estate investors are too far behind the learning curve to understand what they're buying into, it's just a matter of time until they peak the curve and get it going again. A perfect example is the european investment community, of which the vast majority don't understand the difference between our "single family" and "multi-family" definitions. Most europeans live in apartment style setups, not sprawling 1/4+ acre detached homes. So when they hear "subprime meltdown in US housing", they don't realize the difference between the two. Apartment investments are strong, very strong, although some temporary slowdown is predicted, but certainly not a collapse, by any means. Retail will take a hit though, as shoppers aren't out n' about these days.

If I could, I'd be buying that Tahoe these days, for thousands off sticker, and wait for what I believe is going to happen...

I jumped back in with an almost identical options play for June. Decided to bump up my investment amount a bit on this play but don't expect quite the level of return provided on my May options play. But with gas continuing to spiral up almost every day, one never knows....

Have to fight to keep the greed demons at bay - my instincts tell me to double down on my investment but my head has prevailed thus far....

These plays on oil are wicked fun but wicked dangerous as well. As long as I keep them in play for no more than four weeks at a time and continue to respect Options Expiration Friday every month, I think I'll be okay for awhile. I've never watched my charts as closely and as constantly as I have these past few weeks....

Yeah, just be careful and keep an eye on the news. I'm seeing more and more articles being written about "bubble-trouble" coming for oil, even from the Oily-bohunks in Saudi Arabia, and senate hearings. The fact that it's even being discussed is a flag of caution. You know the argument of (does art imatate life, or life imatate art). Once it becomes a discussion piece, it seems to wiggle it's way into the thinking and decision process. But, it's hard to ignore these rallys, that's for sure!

I was in CT early this week. 87 was $4.25 and diesel was $4.85

Ouch! Where I live Premium is ~$4.29 and Diesel is ~$4.99!

Hate to see what next week brings

Just to let you know what the Saudis are doing with our gas money:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3YsNRg_ZkA...feature=related

Here's a little something I just googled up out of curiosity

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=4532134&page=1



Wonder what the most expensive gas today is!

Er, ahh, heloo ~ anybody reading these posts ... like maybe just 10 posts back or so?
That's an old article. Their prices are even higher now. The picture I posted in my earlier post, previous page, shows that their city is about a quarter a gallon higher since that article came out last month. And I'll bet it's even higher since my photo was pasted into my last post. That's pretty scary.

Changing the subject abruptly (but still on high fuel costs) ~ what gets ME is NOT so much the fact that fuel will continue to spiral ever upward as demand increases exponentially, and reserves dwindle ... no. What I find incredable, are the folks who say:

"You drive a $40K-$50K auto, and you're complaining about fuel costs?"
or
"I don't care if gas hits $12 a gallon, because I can afford it, and I refuse to drive in a small roller skate car"

Those statements show the ultimate absence of understanding. The reason is because if Mr. Businesman's business nets several hundred thousand a year, well their business WON't net hundreds of thousands 'when' fuel DOES go that high ... and it WILL. People will be loosing their jobs, and cutting back, and THEN, folks won't be able to buy the wigets, or the services of Mr. hundreds of thousands per year guy. His / her customers will have to cut back just to get by. So how will he afford $12 a gallon then? ... much less $5 / a gallon. Suddenly he will care ... (s)he just doesn't yet 'get it'.

Similarly, the person who doesn't understand why the $50K car owner is complaining has no understanding. The $50K car refueling owner MAY very well understand how detrimental fuel costs are, as they spiral ever upward ... and THAT's why they are complaining. It's the poor fellow who says, "you're complaining?" that doesn't necessarily get it. Ever upward spiraling fuel costs means EVERYTHING will continue to spiral upward, because EVERYTHING we need, from food, to fertilizer, to paint, asphalt, concrete, electricity, etc etc is now cheep, only because the fuel to make stuff is cheep. So yes, even the wealthiest are complaing, because they 'get it'. They realize fuel is just a barometer of what's really going on.

Fresno,CA just hit the $4.05 mark for the cheapest unleaded gas in town. Going to the bay area tomorrow, oh boy! Instead of renting an SUV, we're just getting a full-size car. ugh.

This past week everyone that i know (friends, coworkers, family) noticed a huge increase in milege per gallon from our gas. For the first time ever i got 21mpg up from my usual 16mpg. My driving was routine and nothing else was changed. I wonder if some of the companies around NY did something differently (maybe forgot the ethanol)... whatever is different though its helping ease the pain at the pump...I can only hope my next few fill ups go as well with gas costing me 4.35 a gallon.

I want people to take a little history lesson in the economics of this country. Review how we were around the time Carter-Regan, Bush-Clinton, Clinton-Bush. Guys, history repeats itself, and we being a fast-food society with the attention span to match, always seem to forget "oh, wait, haven't we been here before?" YES, and we will AGAIN. Everytime, the stage gets a little bigger, the players increase in size, but the same underlying fundamentals are always at work.....Temporary instability of the worlds super power...aka...who's gonna' be the next president and what are they going to do? AND everytime, every stinkin' time, it's got a different cover.... either dot.com, over supply of commercial real estate (92), ticked off middle easterns (80), blah blah blah....

I think supply and demand makes up maybe 10% of this mess. The rest....has the same smells of yesteryear financial players, exploiting the coming changes.

I have a question...if crude is over $120 a barrel (closer to 130 now i think...)

and a gallon of gasoline is $3.99 on average...

WHY IN THE NAME OF BARRY BONDS' *BLEEP*...

is regular valvoline 5w-20 motor oil still 3.50 a quart? cause thats the same price it was 3 years ago...

i use mobil 1, im just sayin...and it really hasnt gone up either, maybe a few cents...

but a 20 oz. bottle of mt dew cost $1.50 at the machine...on average, .50 cents more than it did even a year ago...

Not that this horse hasn't been beaten to death already, but I thought I'd post up an article from Fortune Magazine that came up on cnn.com. I tell ya' who's going to make a mint with this stuff, is used car dealers! They're giving pennies on the dollar for the floods of SUV's coming in on trade, which are more substiantial in terms of materials and build, and charging top shelf prices for the cheaper built economy cars! They flush out the cheaper cars at max profit margins, sit tight with the SUV's and wait for oil to tank, and then turn around and jack up the prices for the SUV's when people realize they can't fit the family in the econoboxes and want their SUV back, when gas is about $1.70 a gallon. Give pennies for the slightly used econo-cars on trade, and hit high profit margins on the SUV's...and the wheels of economic demand continues to roll...

Why oil prices will tank
Arguments that $4-a-gallon gas (or even higher) is here to stay are dead wrong. Housing's boom-and-bust cycle tells you why.
By Shawn Tully, editor at large
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- High-flying tech stocks crashed. The roaring housing market crumbled. And oil, rest assured, will follow the same path down.

Not everyone agrees. In an echo of our most recent market frenzies, some experts pronounce that the "world has changed," and that the demand spikes, supply disruptions, and government bungling we face now will saddle us with a future of $4, $5 or even $10 a gallon gasoline.

But if you stick to basic economics, it's clear that the only question is when - not if - prices will succumb.

The oil bulls are correct in their explanations of why prices have jumped. It's indisputable that worldwide demand has surged, chiefly driven by strong growth in China, India and the Middle East. It's also true that most of the world's reserves are controlled by governments in places like Russia and Venezuela that mismanage production, thus curtailing supply growth.

But rather than forming a permanent new plateau for prices - as the bulls contend - those forces are causing a classically unstable market that's destined for a steep fall.

What do you think: Is $4-a-gallon case here to stay?
In a normal oil market, the cost of producing the last, most expensive barrel of oil needed to satisfy worldwide demand sets the price for every barrel the world over. Other auction commodity markets work much the same way.

So even if Saudi Arabia produces at $4 a barrel, if the final, multi-millionth barrel required to heat houses and run cars costs $50, and is produced, for argument's sake, at a flagging field in West Texas, the world price is $50. That's what economists call the equilibrium price: It's where the price that customers are willing to pay meets the production cost, including a cushion, naturally, for profit or "the cost of capital."

But today, the sudden surge in demand and the production bottlenecks have thrown the market radically out of balance.

Almost exactly the same thing happened in the housing market. And both housing and oil supply react to a surge in demand with a long lag. In housing, the lag is caused by restrictive zoning and development laws, especially in coastal markets like California and Florida.

So when the economy roared back in 2002 and 2003, builders couldn't turn out homes fast enough for buyers armed with those cheap mortgages. As a result, prices spiked. They no longer bore any relation to the actual cost of buying and improving land, or constructing and marketing a new house (at some reasonable profit margin). Instead, frenzied buyers were setting the price.

Because builders were reaping huge windfall profits, they rushed to buy and develop land. And sure enough, those new houses were ready just as buyers were retreating to the sidelines because they could no longer afford to buy a home. That vast overhang of unsold homes is what's driving down prices today.

The story is much the same with oil, with a twist. A big swath of the market isn't really paying that $125 a barrel number you hear about seemingly every hour. In China, India and the Middle East, governments are heavily subsidizing oil for their consumers and corporations, leading to rampant over-consumption - and driving up prices even more.

But sooner or later the world won't keep paying those prices: Eventually, the price must fall back to the cost of that last barrel to clear the market.

So what does that barrel cost today? According to Stephen Brown, an economist at the Dallas Federal Reserve, that final barrel costs just $50 to produce. And when the price is $125, the incentive to pour out more oil, like homebuilders' incentive to build more two years ago, is irresistible.

It takes a while to develop new supplies of oil, but the signs of a surge are already in place. Shale oil costing around $70 a barrel is now being produced in the Dakotas. Tar sands are attracting investment in Canada, also at around $70. New technology could soon minimize the pollution caused by producing oil from our super-plentiful supplies of coal.

"History suggests that when there's this much money to be made, new supplies do get developed," says Brown.

That's just the supply side of the equation. Demand should start to decline as well, albeit gradually.

"Historically, the oil market has under-anticipated the amount of conservation brought on by high prices," says Brown. Sales of big cars are collapsing; Americans are cutting down on driving. The airlines are scaling back flights.

We've learned another important lesson from the housing market: The longer prices stay stratospheric, the worse the eventual crash - simply because the higher the prices and bigger the profit margins, the bigger the incentive to over-produce.

It's even possible that, a few years hence, we could see a sustained period of plentiful oil supplies and low prices, meaning $50 or below.

A similar scenario occurred following the price explosion in the 1970s and early 1980s. The price spike caused the world to cut back sharply on oil consumption. By the mid-80s, oil prices had fallen from almost $40 to around $15. They remained extremely low for two decades.

It's impossible to predict how the adjustment this time will take shape, just as it was in housing. There the surge in supply came in places the experts swore there was "no supply," and wouldn't be any. Builders found a way to extend vast tracts of homes into California's Inland Empire and Central Valley, and even build "in-fill" projects near the densely-populated coasts.

An earlier bubble is also instructive. In the early 1980s silver prices jumped from $10 to $50 on the theory that the world was facing a permanent shortage of silver. Suddenly ads appeared asking homeowners to bring their tea sets and jewelry to Holiday Inns for a big price. Silver supplies poured from seemingly nowhere, out of America's cupboards, of all places.

And so it will be with oil. We don't know where the new abundance will come from, from shale, or tar sands or coal or an OPEC desperate to regain market share. We just know that it will appear. With prices like these, it always does.

Yep, I feel for the multi-kid families who have decided that they must trade in (the better term here is "give away") their SUV and replace it with a crackerbox because gas prices are killing their budgets....

I'm way, way too tall to fit into a crackerbox and I need my full-size Ram pickup for the various major projects that I do around the house and grounds from time to time. There's no way I'm getting rid of my perfect-condition 5.9-litre V8 Ram just because it averages 16 mpg, and I'm not going to buy some little Tonka toy truck or car that I can't fit into as a second vehicle - what a boneheaded economic decision that would be. I'll stick with my Ram, plan my trips and errands carefully, ride out the $4 gas prices, and be thankful that I can drive whatever I want when some families are having to park their SUVs and full-size trucks because they can't get anything for them....

Yeah, I agree RX.. I feel really bad for all the people out there that are stuck between a rock and a hard place "gas station". I ran the KBB trade in value on my 4runner the other night, just for curiousity, and it said trade value was barely $13k, at excellent condition. I laughed. But when I ran it at retail, in excellent condition, it was still around $20k, and I REALLY laughed then. It amazes me sometimes how quickly people react to things. Gas hits $4, and with 48 hours, people are giving away thousands of dollars of equity in their SUV's for much smaller and lesser cars. And most are trying to max out the financing on those smaller cars to include some of that loss on their trades, which just puts them in worse condition the second they title the car and take the depreciation hit. Just like a few years ago when lenders where pushing 125% loan to value refinancing on people's homes...automatically flipped over. At least homes will appreciate over time, unlike cars. If they would just sit tight, make cuts in other areas of their lives at the moment, and not make these trades, I think they'd find that they'll be MUCH better off soon. Think about how many gallons of gas $6,000 can buy! Instead of throwing it away to Joe Slick car salesman. But, some people never really learn the value of protecting your credit score either, and don't quite understand how important it is.

Are you still running your options table on oil, RX? Do you have any hedges in place incase it tanks and you're still exposed? It's been years since studying that stuff, but if I recall, a "spider" play does this? I'm super rusty on my lingo... I only deal in commercial real estate investments.

I'll say this too, in relation to all of these artictles about "the death of the SUV". Complete, total, and utter-CRAP. The SUV has been around since the beginning of the automobile, and will continue. What's next? The "death of the mini-van"? Because my dad's Nissan minivan gets the exact same mileage as my v8 4runner. As long as American's continue to reproduce, SUV's will continue to play it's part in American culture.

Speaking of gas...

I filled up last night (18 gallons for $81! yay!) and there was a new sticker on the pump that said. "CONTAINS UP TO 10% ETHANOL"

Is this true? How long has THIS been going on? Is it like this everywhere? Any harm to normal engines?



I don't want no stinking corn in my tank! haha

nc211,

I sold out of my June options play on oil when it hit $135 a barrel - my charts predicted this week's decline and I heeded their advice to sell, although I thought about it for several hours before deciding to do so. I knew that I wouldn't net as high of a profit percentage as I did for my May oil options but I also believed that I would be relatively safe as long as I sold out by Options Expiration Friday in June (which is still two weeks away). I netted nearly $71,000 for May and just over $62,000 for June. And that's on top of my usual technology plays every month (which have been consistent but not nearly as lucrative as oil has been for the past couple of months). It's too early to say if I think I can make it three-for-three with oil options for July, but I'm still studying my charts carefully and I'll make that decision by June 23rd or 24th. This has really been a blast, particularly since I've never bet on oil before due to the potential for huge losses if you're not an expert in that sector (and I certainly don't pretend to be - technology is my claim to fame)....

Keep in mind that no matter what options I'm playing, I never plan to go out more than about six weeks in order to help minimize my risk. It doesn't always work, of course, but I plan my plays and have taught myself not to get greedy. Take what the market gives you, cash in, and look for the next play. You can always get back into the same (or similar) trade if you choose to do so....

You should study up on options, practice with play money for six months or so (many sites let you do this at no cost - I always liked OptionsXpress out of Chicago), and then jump in with perhaps $5,000 total and never risking more than half of that figure at one time. You'll win a few, lose a few, but more importantly you'll learn the game very quickly. I started in late 2003 by reading 20 or 30 books on the subject and then gradually putting my own money into play. The biggest challenge (for me, anyway), comes in learning to control both FEAR and GREED. But if you take a systematic, it's-just-my-job approach and you're disciplined enough to stick with it every day, win or lose, you can do it. I guarantee you that it is the best way to 1. financial independence and 2. building your son's college education fund. And it doesn't have to be your full-time job initially (or ever). But most people who get good at this quickly learn that they can earn more from the options markets than any employer will ever be willing to pay them....

If you're interested, let me know. I'll suggest about 15 books that you should read, and many of them will be available in a good-sized public library. Some of these books are purely technical, but some of them address your mindset and serve to get your head right so you can more easily and confidently do what needs to be done to gradually become successful at this. It certainly isn't for the masses, but if you have an economics and statistics background (as I do) or a commercial banking or real estate background (as you do), then you have a huge advantage over the average guy or gal who just wants to strike it rich and thinks that options is the way to do it. If you can't control your emotions and aren't able to simply treat this like a career, it isn't for you - the market will hand you your ass before you ever see it coming. But if you're detail-oriented, good at keeping daily notes in a market journal format (history repeats itself, remember), and you have a basic understanding of how financial markets work, you can learn to do this....

I'd love to get into it, but not just yet, I'm a little to tight at the moment to slice off some of the savings to start rolling with, plus my wife would have a fit! Maybe I'll slice off a piece of the next spring's bonus and start playing my cards. I remember back in school "finance major", we had a semester long contest on one of the practice site. My partner and I won the most money by a long shot, with pitting calls and puts against eachother. I know I have the notes on how we did it in a box in the attic, which I'd have to reread, because I don't recall how we did it (1999). But we had things coming and going like mad, and cleared out at the end of the semester with over a cool million, of funny money. I remember terms like straddles, spiders, and something he coined as the "derivative double dance". I'll always remember that phrase, because our instructor made him get up in front of the class and demonstrate what the derivative double dance looked like. Funny stuff! However, I do recall one of the good plays was Enron...so...whatever that means...

But these days, and for the past 8 years, it's all NOI, cap rates, and DCF models on real estate for me.

When it cools down a bit, I think I'll head up there and see if I can find that box. But not this weekend, that's for sure! Temps over 100 predicted.

By the way, I think you might of jumped out a hair too soon, considering today's $11 rally up the ladder on oil. But with those kinds of returns you're getting, still ain't nothing to cry about! I'm jealous!

Maybe I did get out of my June oil options a tad early, but who knew that oil would jump back up nearly $11 yesterday? Those things happen, they typically aren't predictable, and you have to learn that it's all part of the process. Never look back (except to figure out where you blew a trade that backfired on you so you live and learn and don't allow the same factors to bite you again with future trades) and celebrate the fact that your trade worked out as planned. Yes, oil jumped up $11 yesterday, but when I sold my position at $135 a barrel, I netted sixty-two grand!! Celebrate for a few minutes, treat myself to a Klondike Bar, and then move on by looking for the next deal. Again, it's a career, not living and dying with each and every trade or looking to milk the very last dollar and then winding up losing everything you put into the play and more....

Don't be jealous - quit making excuses, get off your ass, and start practice-trading again. You've already proven that you can do this. You don't need to risk any money to practice-trade. So start polishing up your skills again because the sooner you get involved, the sooner you'll begin building your entire family's financial independence. And just like building a house, you do it one brick at a time. Yes, it takes years to get to where you want to be, but it is so worth it in the long run. We're completely debt-free, have been for many years, and we'll never need to take out a loan for anything we'll ever need or want to buy again. Doesn't matter if it's real estate, a vacation home, a Maserati (no, I'm far too economically conservative now to waste good money on an expensive depreciating "asset"), or whatever. We're free and clear of any economic worries with no long-term concerns about what happens to employers, gas prices, food prices, utility prices, or any of the other routine matters that we all must contend with each day....

When you finally get inspired, read the following books in the order I have listed them below. Then immediately go back and read them again. And then after three or four months have passed and you're well on your way with your practice-trading, go back and read them a third time:

1. Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki
2. The Cashflow Quadrant by Robert Kiyosaki
3. Introduction to Technical Analysis by Martin Pring
4. Rich Dad's Prophecy by Robert Kiyosaki
5. The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas
6. Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques by Steve Nison (the most important book I've ever read - it is my icon)
7. The Market Maker's Edge by Josh Lukeman
8. Getting Started in Options by Michael Thomsett
9. Success Is Not An Accident by Tommy Newberry
10. Boomernomics by Sterling & Waite

Remember: Do what wealthy people do - READ....